The NASCAR Cup Series goes racing under the lights once more when EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway) hosts the Quaker State 400.
The NASCAR Cup Series odds are wide-open for this draft-style event, so my Quaker State 400 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks for Sunday, July 12 are spreading out and hoping to connect on a decently-priced winner.
See why my free picks are targeting Carson Hocevar this week.
NASCAR Quaker State 400 sleeper picks
- Carson Hocevar (+1567)
- Daniel Suarez (+3233)
- Zane Smith (+4900)
Picks made on 7-10.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
NASCAR Quaker State 400 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Carson Hocevar
+1567 at Kalshi
Carson Hocevar won the last NASCAR Cup Series race held on a drafting track, creating one of the most memorable post-race celebrations in the history of the sport at Talladega.
Iconic. Carson Hocevar celebrates at Talladega hanging out the window. pic.twitter.com/Na2Qf3EPuE
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) April 26, 2026
Hocevar ran fourth earlier this year at EchoPark Speedway, good for his third straight Top 10 here. It helped him pull ahead of Ryan Blaney for best average finish at this circuit since 2023 (10.2).
Remarkably, Hocevar has crashed out only twice in 16 Cup Series starts at drafting tracks. His two other DNFs were due to mechanical issues. It speaks to his ability to navigate the chaos of pack racing successfully.
Anything above +1200 on Hocevar is acceptable.
Sleeper pick to win: Daniel Suarez
+3233 at Kalshi
Daniel Suarez's win here in February 2024 was anything but a fluke, the razor-thin margin of victory notwithstanding.
He sandwiched that triumph win two second-place efforts, and ran fifth here back in February. His only two non-Top 5 efforts at EchoPark Speedway over the last six Cup Series events were due to wrecks.
Suarez is sixth among active drivers in average finish at drafting tracks since 2023, running no worse than 13th in the last five such races.
Playable to +2000.
Sleeper pick to win: Zane Smith
+4900 at Kalshi
I swear the No. 38 team isn't paying me to pick Zane Smith in this column nearly every week. The data is once again pointing me in his direction at boxcar odds.
Smith has put together four straight Top 10s on drafting tracks, peaking with a fifth-place effort at Talladega. He's compiled back-to-back seventh-place finishes at EchoPark Speedway, finding the front each time.
Smith has crashed out only three times in 17 Cup Series starts on drafting tracks.
I wouldn't go lower than +2500 on Smith.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS20' and get a $20 trading bonus after you trade $20 on any other event contracts — including this market!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
