The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Austin, TX for the 2026 Duramax Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas this Sunday, March 1, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
We’re talking 95 laps on the tightened 2.4-mile COTA National Course layout, a technical road circuit where braking zones, tire falloff, and strategy trump raw horsepower.
My Duramax Texas Grand Prix props and NASCAR race picks are all about finding mispriced value — these free betting picks lean into real road-course data, COTA-specific history, and Next Gen-era trends from 2022 through 2025.
NASCAR prop picks for DuraMax Texas Grand Prix
- Top 5 Finish: Chris Buescher (+400)
- Top 3 Finish: Connor Zillisch (+100)
- Top 10 Finish: Michael McDowell (+120)
NASCAR DuraMax Texas Grand Prix props and best bets
Top 5 Finish: Chris Buescher (+400 at bet365)
Chris Buescher has been one of the most efficient road-course drivers of the Next Gen era, with a strong average finish and multiple Top 5s on road and street layouts from 2022-25.
He logged a Top 10 at COTA in 2025 on this same configuration, and RFK’s long-run road-course speed fits a 95‑lap strategy race.
Pricing him like a fringe Top 10 guy instead of a legit Top 5 threat creates value at this number. Count me in.
Top 3 Finish: Connor Zillisch (+100 at bet365)
Connor Zilisch is still relatively new to the Cup Series but has already established himself as a COTA specialist, highlighted by his win in the Xfinity Series (now the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series) race here last year, where he started up front and controlled a large portion of the laps.
That road‑course pedigree, combined with a competitive Chevrolet program, gives him a realistic Top 3 ceiling that’s closer to the established road aces than this price implies.
For a young driver with elite road‑racing chops, +100 is a strong upside number, as long as he and SVG don't take each other out later on in the race. Whatever happens, Zilli vs. SVG will be one of the better racing battles this year!
Top 10 Finish: Michael McDowell (+120 at bet365)
Michael McDowell sits quietly inside the Top 10 in road-course average finish among full-timers in the Next Gen era, despite running for a mid-tier team. He flirted with a Top 10 at COTA in 2025 and often qualifies well here, which protects him from mid-pack chaos.
With Front Row regularly using an aggressive road-course strategy, his realistic Top 10 probability looks better than what this plus-money price implies. He could've been priced closer to -150ish and probably will be if he qualifies well.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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