The NASCAR Cup Series starts up again on Sunday, February 15 with the 68th Daytona 500.
Before the green flag drops and the 40 drivers go bumper-to-bumper in the "Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing," you can get your bets in at prediction markets like Kalshi.
I'll explain how Kalshi works below, and which drivers you might want to invest in.
2026 Daytona 500 predictions
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney to win | Trade at Kalshi |
| William Byron to win | Trade at Kalshi |
| Carson Hocevar to win | Trade at Kalshi |
Our predictions: Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Carson Hocevar to win
Ryan Blaney tops my Daytona 500 predictions for 2026. He's a two-time winner over this course and a three-time winner on a similar track in Talladega.
William Byron seems to be getting overlooked in the betting, but he's the back-to-back reigning champion of NASCAR's most famous race.
Carson Hocevar has parlayed his take-no-prisoners approach into some solid results in recent drafting races like the Daytona 500.
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2026 Daytona 500 odds
2026 Daytona 500 analysis
Daytona International Speedway is known as a drafting track, and this type of racing can lead to big wrecks and long shot winners. You'll want to use recent results at Daytona as a reference before you bet on the Daytona 500 at Kalshi, as well as Talladega and EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta, which was converted in 2022).
Betting on the Daytona 500 at Kalshi is simple: If you want to wager on pole-sitter Kyle Busch to win, you'll "invest" in his stock at eight cents in the hopes of winning $1 when the market is settled.
Each market is priced based on implied probability, which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter.
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on the Daytona 500 at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
