After a chaotic Coca-Cola 600 that saw Ross Chastain take the checkered flag, the NASCAR Cup Series drivers will be bringing their talents to "The Music City" at Nashville Superspeedway for the Cracker Barrel 400.
You could probably say some drivers are going to love the change of scenery, especially Kyle Larson. Yes, Larson technically pulled off "The Double," but boy did he struggle while trying to do so.
Luckily, for this week's free betting picks, I'm going to cut the SolCal boy some slack.
Along with Larson, my NASCAR race picks once again expect the Chevys to come out strong in Sunday's 6:00 p.m. ET racing affair on Amazon Prime. And, for just once, I'm praying Carson Hocevar gets some racing luck.
NASCAR prop picks for Cracker Barrel 400
- Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+150 at bet365)
- Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+120 at bet365)
- Top 10 Finish: Carson Hocevar (+150 at bet365)
NASCAR Cracker Barrel 400 props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+150 at bet365)
I've made my feelings known about Kyle Larson several times already this season, but if you're new here, imma give you a TL;DR rundown on the Grove's finest: If you asked me to name the Michael Jordan of NASCAR, 100 times out of 100, I'd point to Larson as that guy.
Let's start by mentioning that Larson won the inaugural NASCAR Cup Series race at Nashville in 2021, leading an impressive 264 of 300 laps in an outright slobberknocker of a performance.
Since that fateful day in 2021, he has maintained a perfect record of finishing in the Top 10 in every Cup race at Nashville, making him the only driver to achieve this feat.
In four starts, Larson has three Top 5s and holds the best average finish (4.5) among all drivers with more than one start at the track. He has also led more laps at Nashville than any other driver in the Cup Series era.
I'm not exaggerating when I say Larson is the G.O.A.T. at the track.
And, yes, I understand that he looked disheveled last week. However, you have to remember that he isn't a great open-wheel driver, so he was never going to succeed in the Indy 500. In the Coke 600, he was in the wrong spot at the wrong time and paid the price for it.
Don't forget, though, Larson has already secured three wins in the first half of the season, including back-to-back dominant runs at tracks that fit Nashville's bill, and currently sits second in the points standings.
Getting him at +150 to finish in the Top 3 feels like a must-bet. I have this priced closer to +100.
Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+120 at bet365)
Chevrolet has torn up the Cup Series races at Nashville. The manufacturer has won three of the four fixtures held so far. As we already know, Larson took the inaugural victory. Chase Elliott won in 2022, and Ross Chastain in 2023.
While everyone seems to be liking Larson to win in this race, including me, William Byron has been keeping himself in the mix. Byron’s statistics at Nashville include four starts, one Top 5, and two Top 10s, with an average start of 7.3 and modest laps led.
While these numbers are not as dominant as teammate Larson’s, they prove Byron is regularly knocking on the door. His recent showings at intermediate tracks — like leading 283 laps and sweeping the first three stages of the 2025 Coca-Cola 600 before a late-race pass denied him the win — testify to his ability to take over races and contend for big wins on similar-style circuits.
And, of course, Kyle Busch's name keeps popping up every week as a dark horse to win. Elliot seems to be in the mix. And Chastain never backs down from a fight.
The +120 price point won't knock your socks off. That said, you're getting fair expected value on a manufacturer that consistently puts up good numbers on these types of tracks.
Top 10 Finish: Carson Hocevar (+150 at bet365)
Carson Hocevar might not be the first name you think of for a Top 10 finish at Nashville Superspeedway, but the numbers actually back him up a bit.
For starters, he’s already won at this track — not in the Cup Series, but in the Truck Series, where he dominated the final 40 laps and took the checkered flag in 2023.
Since moving up to the Cup Series, Hocevar’s been quietly creating himself a nice resume. In his rookie season last year, he grabbed seven Top 10s and landed in the Top 15 a total of 14 times. That’s way above what most rookies manage, and it proves he’s got the skill to run up front.
This year, he’s kept the momentum going, with a second-place finish at Atlanta — another fast, high-banked track that’s not too different from Nashville in terms of what it asks from a driver.
Looking at the bigger picture, Hocevar’s team, Spire Motorsports, has been stepping up its game. They’re not as big as Hendrick or Gibbs, but they’ve been making real progress, and Hocevar has been qualifying well. He even started on the front row at Darlington last season.
That kind of speed in qualifying can translate to good track position on race day, which is huge for finishing in the Top 10, especially when we're making these picks before qualifying.
I'll take +150 on the young gun to finish in the Top 10. I say this is a fair price. If he qualifies in the Top 5, the price probably goes down to +120, so there's always that.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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