The first elimination race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is here with the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin can rest easy knowing they're guaranteed a spot in the Round of 12, and Kyle Larson is 60 points clear of the cut line. Yet all three drivers are listed at short odds to win at Bristol, including Larson at less than +300.
Who will top our Bass Pro Shops Night Race predictions and free betting picks? Don't miss our analysis of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds for Saturday, September 13.
Odds to win 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +265 |
| Denny Hamlin | +400 |
| Ryan Blaney | +600 |
| Christopher Bell | +750 |
| William Byron | +1000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1100 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1800 |
| Joey Logano | +2000 |
| Alex Bowman | +2000 |
| Ross Chastain | +2200 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2500 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2500 |
| Kyle Busch | +2800 |
| Carson Hocevar | +2800 |
| Josh Berry | +3500 |
| Austin Cindric | +4500 |
| Austin Dillon | +4500 |
Odds as of 9-12.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race field
The 36 NASCAR Cup Series regulars will be joined by three open entrants for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, namely Austin Hill (No. 33), Chad Finchum (No. 66), and Corey Heim (No. 67).
Kyle Larson has dominated proceedings in the last two races held at Bristol, leading all but 127 of 1,000 laps and taking the checkered flag each time, so it's not surprising to see him as a short-priced favorite.
Joe Gibbs Racing is well-represented at the top with Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe all at +1000 or lower. Ryan Blaney rounds out the options at below the +1000 line.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9-12.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+265)
Larson has 1,121 laps led and scored six Top-5 finishes (first, fifth, second, fifth, first, first) over the last eight Bristol races. Dating further back, Larson has 11 Top-10 finishes in his last 12 Bristol tries, including six Top-2 finishes.
He swept both stages and led 462 of 500 laps last year, and swept both stages in leading 411 of 500 laps this spring. On short tracks this season, Larson has finished third (Phoenix), first (Bristol), fifth (Martinsville), fourth (Dover), 28th (Iowa), and sixth (Richmond).
Denny Hamlin (+400)
He beat your favorite driver in 2023, leading 142 laps from a front-row starting position. He won again last spring and boasts six consecutive Top-10 finishes on concrete here and nine Top 10s in his last 11 tries at Bristol, which includes three wins. He was runner-up this past spring.
On short tracks in 2025, Hamlin has finished second (Phoenix), second (Bristol), first (Martinsville), first (Dover), 24th (Iowa), and 10th (Richmond). He also enters off a win in Gateway.
"I beat your favorite driver ... All of 'em."- Denny Hamlin pic.twitter.com/6JI7ebO0sj
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) September 17, 2023
Christopher Bell (+750)
With the Next Gen, Bell has been en fuego. He won the Dirt Race in 2023 and on concrete, he’s qualified eighth, first, 12th, sixth, and seventh. He finished fourth, third, 10th, fifth, and eighth and has led 359 laps.
He won Phoenix this spring, and finished runner-up at Martinsville. Can he complete the Joe Gibbs Racing opening-round sweep with Chase Briscoe (Darlington) and Hamlin (Gateway)?
Bass Pro Shops Night Race sleepers
Chase Briscoe (+1000)
He finished fourth this spring in his first season with JGR, and has two runner-up finishes (Dover, Iowa) on other short tracks this season, in addition to ninth at Martinsville. Briscoe also has finished first and second, respectively, during the playoffs and has six Top-2 finishes in the last 12 weeks.
Chase Elliott (+1100)
He’s due. Elliott won the All-Star race here in July 2020 and when factoring that, Elliott has seven Top-8 finishes in his last 10 starts, including a runner-up in 2022 and 2024. He led 129 laps in a 25th-place finish in 2021, too.
He’s coming off a third-place finish in Gateway and was 10th in Phoenix and fourth in Martinsville this spring. Elliott also dominated the Dover race, but strategy dropped him from a victory.
Chris Buescher (+2500)
He won this race in 2022, was fourth in 2023, and 14th last year. Buescher has four Top-10 finishes in the last five weeks, including three in a row.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race fades
William Byron (+1000)
He’s 0-for-14 at Bristol, which is why I don’t trust picking him as an outright winner. He was sixth this past spring and 17th last year. On the season, Byron finished sixth at Phoenix, 22nd at Martinsville, sixth at Bristol, 32nd at Dover, first at Iowa, and 12th at Richmond.
Joey Logano (+2000)
Not a good track for Logano anymore. He’s finished outside the Top 10 in nine of the last 10 tries there, including finishes of 27th, 34th, and 22nd with the Next Gen, with two of the three ending prematurely.
He’s had two Top-10 finishes in his last 12 tries and two Top-5 finishes in the last 14 overall races on the season.
Tyler Reddick (+2500)
Not a great track for him. He was 30th and 18th the last two spring races and fourth, 12th, 25th, 15th, and 20th in the Night Race, respectively.
On short tracks this season, he has finished 20th (Phoenix), 18th (Bristol), 14th (Martinsville), 12th (Dover), 19th (Iowa), and 34th (Richmond).
Kyle Busch (+2800)
At one point, Busch was the king of Bristol. He came into the 2021 season with seven Top-4 finishes in an eight-race span, including three wins and a pair of runner-ups.
Since? 21st, 34th, 20th, and 25th, 28th, and 24th, respectively, with five laps led.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race prop pick: Ryan Blaney Top-3 finish
Ryan Blaney finished fourth in the 2021 night race, but was 30th, 22nd, and sixth the last three years. However, Blaney finished fifth this spring. He also finished fifth at Phoenix, seventh at Dover, fourth at Iowa, and third at Richmond.
Blaney has seven Top-8 finishes in the last eight races on the season, including five Top-6 results in the last six.
Pick: Ryan Blaney Top-3 finish (+170 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Bristol Motor Speedway track analysis
Bristol’s a banked concrete short track, most similar to Dover, although this track is half the size. Multiple grooves settle in as the race goes on. Lapped traffic plays a key role in determining the outcome of this track.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race trends
- Starting spot is key; eight of the last nine winners on the concrete oval came from a Top-5 starting spot.
- Toyota has led 85% of the opening round laps and went 2-for-2 in the races. It has won two of the last four Bristol races as well.
- None of the last 17 races at Bristol ended in overtime; the last Bristol overtime race was in April 2015.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race info
| Location: | Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| Start time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Previous Bass Pro Shops Night Race winners
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have combined to win six of the last nine Bristol races.
| Year | Winner |
| 2024 | Kyle Larson |
| 2023 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2022 | Chris Buescher |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson |
| 2020 | Kevin Harvick |
How to make Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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