Are you sick and tired of Shane van Gisbergen owning the Cup Series drivers on road courses? Well, crack open your Busch Light and enjoy the weekend's festivities at Dover Motor Speedway, because we both know that SVG won't be winning 💩.
Now, don't you go thinking my NASCAR race picks will be backing guys like yesterday's hot stuff, Kyle Busch, or even today's new flavor of the week, Denny Hamlin.
That ain't happening, sir.
When the green flag flies in the 2025 NASCAR AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 on Sunday at 2:00 p.m. on TNT, my free betting picks love Alex Bowman to make his mark, Christopher Bell to keep up his sneaky good stats at Dover, and a Chevy car to take away what some are calling "a likely win" from the Toyotas.
Let's talk about it below ⬇️.
NASCAR prop picks for AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400
- Top 5 Finish: Bowman (+250)
- Top 5 Finish: Bell (+180)
- Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+100)
NASCAR AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 props and best bets
Top 5 Finish: Alex Bowman (+250 at bet365)
Another week, another Hendrick Motorsports driver being punted.
Although many may view my support of the Hendrick cars as a form of fandom, I see it as a recognition of value. And, my brothers and sisters of the flesh, "Bowman the Showman" possesses a lot of that aura this weekend.
Bowman has one win, five Top 5s, and six Top 10s in 13 Dover starts. Critically, almost all of that performance is recent.
He’s landed all those Top 10s over the last seven races, including a 2021 win. Even more quietly, he’s finished Top 8 in four consecutive Dover events.
In recent Dover races, even when not finishing in the Top 5, Bowman’s No. 48 car has shown top-tier speed. In 2024, he was “the fastest car of the race” at times, running second at the end of Stage 2 before damage and tire wear left him eighth — a finish Bowman himself called disappointing given the car’s capabilities.
On top of all of that, his median and mean finishes at the Monster Mile both rank among the best for non-marquee names, making him a sneaky, data-driven pick for the people who aren't caught up in the hype around folks like Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin.
I have Bowman's price projected closer to +170ish, so +250 to finish in the Top 5 makes him a must-play for me.
Top 5 Finish: Christopher Bell (+180 at bet365)
Christopher Bell hasn't won at Dover in the Cup Series, but that doesn't mean he's been bad here.
Over his last four Cup Series starts at Dover, Bell has finished Top 6 in three of them — including Top 5s in 2022 and 2024 — while his only miss came from a mechanical DNF rather than a lack of speed.
On concrete tracks like Dover, Bristol, and Nashville, Bell has posted a Top 5 rate of roughly 60% since 2022. The high-grip, high-wear tracks don't scare the youngin. In fact, they bring the best out of him. Case in point, Bell is also a former back-to-back Xfinity Series winner at Dover.
Let's not forget that Bell consistently qualifies near the front on these types of ovals, which is big on a track where it's hard to pass other drivers.
I like the +180 price tag. It's nothing overly special, and I actually think it's fair value.
Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+100 at bet365)
Chevrolet, led by Hendrick Motorsports, has straight-up owned Dover. Hendrick holds the all-time record here in wins (22), Top 5s (81), and laps led (7,600+). And this generation of Chevy talent stacks up just as strong, as I've said several times in the past.
All four Hendrick drivers — Larson, Elliott, Byron, and Bowman — have posted Top 5s at Dover since 2019. Larson, in particular, has an 8.2 career average finish and nearly 1,000 laps led. Byron has three Top 4s in his last five. Bowman won here in 2021. Elliott? Ten Top 5s in 14 starts.
And it’s not just individual flashes. Chevy has put at least one car in the Top 10 at Dover for 24 straight races. Stuff like that doesn’t happen by accident.
I make this closer to -120. At even money, it’s a buy.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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