Usman Nurmagomedov puts his PFL Lightweight World Championship on the line against No. 2 contender Alfie Davis at PFL Dubai on Saturday.
Nurmagomedov is widely considered the best MMA fighter outside the UFC, and he's installed as a massive -1100 favorite with Davis coming back at +625.
See how I'm getting betting value out of this fight with my best Nurmagomedov vs. Davis predictions and free betting picks for February 7.
Nurmagomedov vs Davis prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction
Nurmagomedov moneyline (-1100 at BET99) - My best bet
Under 3.5 rounds (-105 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Nurmagomedov has a perfect 20-0 record and has picked up five title wins between Bellator and the now merged PFL. He got through the toughest test of his career last year in a decision win against Paul Hughes and beat Hughes again in the rematch last October.
Meanwhile, Alfie Davis has gone 10-2-1 in his last 13 fights. In his most recent bout, he won the 2025 PFL Lightweight Tournament by ending Gadzhi Rabadanov's 12-fight win streak.
Davis is a dangerous striker with plenty of tools and an unorthodox style. That said, Nurmagomedov also boasts fluid striking with excellent defense and elite kicking ability. And he has a massive edge in the grappling department due to his takedowns and top control.
Nurmagomedov should win but this line is too wide, especially in MMA, where freak injuries and disqualifications can happen. This is a dog or pass spot on the moneyline.
Best bet analysis
Five of Nurmagomedov's last six fights have gone the distance. The only exception was a first-round submission win against Benson Henderson in 2023.
That said, there's a massive gap between these fighters on the ground, and even in Davis' most recent win, he was controlled on the mat for long stretches by Rabadanov.
Nurmagomedov won't be satisfied to just maintain control. He'll use his slick grappling to transition to submission attempts and end this fight inside of 3.5 rounds.
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Usman Nurmagomedov vs Alfie Davis odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Nurmagomedov | Davis |
| To win outright | -4000 | +1200 |
| O/U 3.5 rounds | Over +135 |
Under -190 |
Odds as of 2-7.
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Usman Nurmagomedov vs Alfie Davis tale of the tape
| Nurmagomedov | Davis | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 155 pounds | Weight | 154 pounds |
| 72 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 20-0 (1 NC) | Record | 20-5-1 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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