Vadim Nemkov vs. Yoel Romero is the main event for Bellator 297 betting on June 16, from Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Illinois.
This is a stacked Bellator card and in the headline event, Nemkov makes his fourth defense of the light heavyweight championship against a former UFC title contender in Romero.
Bellator betting lines opened with Nemkov as a -350 favorite but money has poured in on the champ who is now installed at -550 with Romero coming back at +390.
Here are my best free Nemkov vs. Romero betting picks and predictions for Bellator 297 on Friday, June 16. Be sure to also check out our Pettis vs Freire picks and predictions!
Nemkov vs Romero odds
| Market | Vadim Nemkov | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -550 | +390 |
| To win by KO,TKO,DQ, or submission | +115 | +650 |
| To win by Points | +125 | +1,000 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 16, 2023.
Nemkov vs Romero picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nemkov vs Romero betting preview
Vadim Nemkov has won 10 fights in a row, most recently defeating Corey Anderson by unanimous decision last November for his third defense of the Bellator Light Heavyweight belt.
Nemkov was an underdog entering that fight since he appeared to be losing to Anderson seven months earlier in a bout that ended up being ruled no contest due to an accidental clash of heads. The champ made improvements in the rematch, stuffing all 15 of Anderson's takedown attempts while blasting him with crisp counter strikes en route to scores of 48–47, 49–46, and 49–46.
The 30-year-old has a perfect 8-0 record in the promotion and won the light heavyweight title with a knockout win against Ryan Bader in 2020. He has only two career defeats — a split decision loss to Karl Albrektsson and a highly-entertaining battle against former UFC champ Jiri Prochazka when they were both rising young fighters at RIZIN.
Nemkov trains under legendary heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko and is a four-time combat Sambo world champion. He has a very well-rounded skill set that combines highly technical kickboxing with strong grappling ability and punishing ground-and-pound.
Covers MMA Betting Analysis
Yoel "Soldier of God" Romero lost his first Bellator bout by split decision to Phil Davis in 2021 before picking up back-to-back knockout wins against Alex Polizzi and Melvin Manhoef.
You probably remember Romero from his tenure in the UFC where he won his first eight fights in the octagon, earning him a shot at the interim middleweight belt against Robert Whittaker in 2017. He lost that fight in a thrilling back-and-forth war and lost by split decision when he rematched with Whittaker the following year.
After earning a Fight of the Night bonus in another competitive loss (this time to Paulo Costa), he got another championship shot against Israel Adesanya but lost by unanimous decision. Following that defeat to Adesanya, Romero made the move to Bellator where he moved up to light heavyweight.
A former Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling, Romero has an extremely strong wrestling base but loves to stand and strike. He's an aggressive brawler on the feet and is always coming forward while throwing power shots and trusting in his granite chin to absorb damage.`
Nemkov vs Romero tale of the tape
| Vadim Nemkov | Yoel Romero | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 46 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 205 lbs | Weight | 205 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 16-2 (10 KO) | Record | 15-6 (13 KO) |
Nemkov vs Romero prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Nemkov (-550 at bet365)
Nemkov has a high fight IQ and does a great job of taking advantage of his opponent's weaknesses — and Romero certainly has those.
"Soldier of God" didn't make his MMA debut until he was already 32 years old in 2009, but he's now 46 and has plenty of tread on his tires. Although he looked impressive when battering Polizzi, his only other victory in the last five years came against Manhoef who is even old than he is.
Romero has always been a bit wild in his striking and is hittable and reliant on his chin. At this age, he won't be able to explode forward as quickly and will get tagged whenever he blitzes and tries to close the gap — especially against a technical striker like Nemkov who has fluid footwork and slippery defense.
In many ways, Nemkov compares favorably to Whittaker. He chains together punches and kicks, has excellent distance management, is very accurate with his one-two combinations, and has good enough grappling to neutralize wrestling-heavy fighters like Anderson, Davis, and Bader. If Romero wasn't able to beat Whittaker in his prime, he's not going to beat Nemkov at this stage of his career.
Best bet: Nemkov by decision (+125 at bet365)
Romero is an older fighter who has taken plenty of punishment in high-profile fights but he wasn't getting knocked out even when cutting to 185 and his chin should be even better at 205.
Nemkov is capable of finishing opponents, but he doesn't typically display one-punch knockout power and will likely take a calculated approach when fighting the ultra-aggressive Romero.
Expect Nemkov to be cautious of Romero's power and offensive wrestling and stay on the outside. From that distance, he'll rely on his crisp combinations and counter-striking to outpoint Romero.
