New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC Picks and Predictions: Red Bulls Defy the Numbers

The latest edition of the Hudson River Derby takes place on Saturday, when the New York Red Bulls look to turn their season around with a win over bitter rivals New York City FC. 

The worst team in the East will take the pitch in MLS play for the first time under new manager Troy Lesesne after the club relieved Gerhard Struber of his duties. They picked up a 1-0 victory over DC United mid-week in the US Open Cup, and now hope to ride the “new manager bump” to another win. 

Meanwhile, NYCFC are in the midst of a long road spell, with Saturday being the fourth of a five-match away run in all competitions. They’ve yet to pick up a victory in seven away this season, and hope their struggling rivals will be just the recipe they need to collect all three points. 

Rivalry matches can be tricky to predict as the unpredictable can often happen, but we’re here to make it a bit easier to find betting angles with our New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC MLS betting picks for Saturday, May 13. 

New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC best odds

New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC picks and predictions

Everything about this match screams to bet on NYC FC. They’re the better team in the table, and they’re getting exceptional odds in the 3-way line. It almost screams “free money” when you see the Red Bulls are favorites despite being the worst team in the conference. But are the Red Bulls really as bad as the base numbers indicate? 

I’ve been watching this sport for more than 20 years, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team more woefully underperforming at the offensive end than NYRB this season. Through 11 matches, they’ve scored a league-low seven goals — but their expected goal (xG) mark currently sits at almost 15 goals. 

Their -7.7 goals above expected mark is the worst in the league, and only LA Galaxy are within a goal of them. Last week in a 1-0 defeat to Philadelphia, the Red Bulls failed to score despite having 17 shots. They put three of them on target and had an xG of 1.59, and yet lost to a Union side that managed to put just two attempts on goal and had only three total shots.

It’s a key factor for their hold on the bottom spot in the Eastern Conference table, despite the fact they’ve allowed the third-fewest goals so far this season of any team in the East. Red Bulls are allowing a league-low 2.36 shots on goal per match, nearly a half-attempt less than Philadelphia. They’ve also allowed just nine goals on those shots — having turned two into their own net — but it hasn’t been enough to offset their woes at the other end.

However, their defensive prowess could be just the key to securing a win against NYC FC on Saturday. The visitors have a tendency to do three things that could aid their opponents. First, they’re very bad in the air. NYC FC ranks sixth-worst in the league in aerial duel win rate, whereas Red Bulls rank fifth. Second, they give up quite a few crosses, which ties into their struggles in the air. 

Third, they foul quite a bit — often in dangerous areas. While nobody fouls more than Red Bulls, it’s a byproduct of their press. NYC FC ranks eighth in fouls committed, and that’s going to be a problem against a Red Bulls team that ranks second in touches inside their opponent’s 18-yard box.

What does all this mean? Perhaps nothing. MLS is a difficult league to handicap, as I’m finding out more each week. But maybe that means digging into the metrics more than usual and finding places like this where Red Bulls have a superior advantage in an area that can lead to goals. 

That’s why I’m going to ignore what feels like easy money, and learn from past experiences. Red Bulls have won four of the last six meetings at home against their rivals in all competitions, and NYC FC have just two wins in their last 14 away trips. It may take a set piece or even a penalty, but I think the hosts do just enough with their aerial advantages to secure the win. 

My best bet: Red Bulls moneyline (+104 at Caesars)

New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC side analysis

Red Bulls have won just once in league play this season, but their win over an MLS side in the US Open Cup could be the catalyst to recovering a bit of their lost start. Their six draws are the most of any team in the league, tied with Toronto and Colorado, and they’ve lost just once at home in six matches. They’ve also conceded just four goals in that span, with nobody having scored more than once.

Two draws and five defeats have been NYC FC’s reward on the road this season in all competitions. They fell 1-0 at FC Cincinnati in the US Open Cup mid-week, the fourth time they’ve failed to score away from home. Only against Charlotte’s league-worst defense have they managed two away goals — and that still wasn’t enough to get the win. 

The hosts will be without multiple players, including the still-suspended Dante Vanzier. Midfielder Frankie Amaya and attacker Luquinhas will miss out, as will winger Lewis Morgan. NYC FC will be without fullback Tayvon Gray, but should be at full strength otherwise. 

We already explained why a Red Bulls victory is the best bet, but those choosing to back the blue side of New York will find solid betting value. The draw is offering around +220 with an NYC FC victory nearly tripling your stake, while a draw-no-bet wager on NYC FC will return nearly double your wager. 

New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC Over/Under analysis

If you’re wanting to play the total in this one, prepare to lay quite a bit of juice or go against the trends. The Under 2.5 is running in the area of -170 or worse, and that makes sense given Red Bulls haven’t been able to find the back of the net while keeping everyone else off the scoresheet. 

For all their away struggles, NYC FC haven’t been conceding a ton either. They’ve yet to keep a clean sheet, but only Charlotte and Nashville have found multiple goals with six of their seven away fixtures going Under 2.5 goals. 

The recent history between these sides plays into the juice as well. Five of the last six meetings between these sides have featured no more than two goals, including four of the last five at Red Bull Arena. 

One way into the total market might be for Red Bulls to keep a clean sheet. NYC FC has scored in just two of their last five visits, and in fewer than half their away matches this season. You can get that wager at plus odds at the moment and it’s worth a look. 

New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC game info

New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC key injuries

New York Red Bulls: Dante Vanzier D (Out), Frankie Amaya M (Out), Luquinhas M (Out), Lewis Morgan F (Out).
NYCFC: Tayvon Gray D (Out). 

New York Red Bulls vs NYCFC weather

Wet conditions could impact play in the first half of Saturday’s match. Temperatures will be in the low 70s at kickoff, but a 50% chance of rain will linger with a dry second half bringing some relief. Winds will be non-existent for the most part. 

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