Yankees vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Bronx Bombers Can't Be Stopped

The most bitter rivalry in baseball will add another installment on Friday night as the New York Yankees take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

The Yankees prevailed by the narrowest of margins in the Thursday night series opener, on the back of a third-inning grand slam by Josh Donaldson that put New York up for good in a 6-5 triumph. Can Boston bounce back with a victory tonight?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs Red Sox on Friday, July 8.

Yankees vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees opened as consensus favorites of -143, and that line has either stood pat or drifted up to about -154, depending on where you look. The total was unveiled at 9.5, a number that has yet to move in either direction.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Red Sox predictions

• Prediction: Yankees ML (-143)
• Prediction: Over 9.5 (-107)
• Best bet: Over 5 F5 (-120)

Picks made on 7/08/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Yankees vs Red Sox game info

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Friday, July 8, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Amazon Prime, NESN

Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nestor Cortes (7-3, 2.44 ERA): After going through a rough patch in June where he authored a 5.68 ERA over a four-start span, Cortes bounced back with six innings of one-run ball against the Guardians on July 2. Cortes has yet to face the Red Sox in 2022 but pitched to a 5.40 ERA over 8 1-3 innings against them last season.

Connor Seabold (0-1, 8.31 ERA): Seabold gets the call for the Red Sox in place of the injured Michael Wacha. His debut against the Blue Jays was one to forget (4 2-3 innings, seven earned runs), but his most recent start against the Cubs was respectable as he held Chicago to one run over four innings of work. Seabold will try to lower his WHIP from 2.08 in this spot.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Yankees are 40-12 in their last 52 games following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox

Yankees vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Yankees appear to have at least a minor edge in the starting pitching, bullpen, and lineup battles over the Red Sox in this one. They are hard to resist backing as road favorites because of this.

Boston is behind the eight-ball with Connor Seabold toeing the rubber in lieu of the more seasoned Michael Wacha. Seabold allowing four home runs in his brief time in the majors (11 2-3 innings) is alarming, considering his 0.8 homers per nine innings figure in the minors seemed a bit inflated as well.

No MLB team has hit home runs at a higher rate than the Bombers this year, as they’re averaging 1.7 four-baggers per game. AL MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge is pacing the majors with 30 dingers, but Anthony Rizzo (22 homers) and Giancarlo Stanton (21) are packing plenty of punch at the plate as well.

This unit should be able to take advantage of Seabold’s gopher-ball tendencies at a hitter-friendly stadium like Fenway Park. Nestor Cortes has earned the nickname “Nasty” this year by striking out 91 batters over 85 innings, and holding opponents to a .199 batting average — no small feat when one pitches half of their games at Yankee Stadium.

Even if the Red Sox find a way to get to Cortes, New York’s shutdown bullpen should have the last laugh. The Bombers’ relief corps owns a 2.64 ERA on the campaign, just a shade behind the Astros for the best mark in baseball. Clay Holmes has been front-and-center for manager Aaron Boone this season, pitching to a 0.47 ERA and recording 16 saves after starting the season as a set-up man for Aroldis Chapman.

The Yankees’ advantage over Boston in both run-scoring (5.16 runs per game to 4.70) and run-preventing (3.03 to 4.07) should prove too much for the Red Sox to overcome.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-143 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

The road to the Over will begin with a full-frontal assault on Friday night’s starters in Beantown. Seabold could find himself on the ropes early with the Yankees’ incredible lineup to contend with, and it’s not just guys like Judge, Stanton, and Rizzo jumping the yard either.

Aaron Hicks is off to a torrid start in July, recording a 1.474 OPS with homers in two straight tilts. Gleyber Torres has a 1.092 OPS this month, and Matt Carpenter’s stellar second act has continued into July, as his OPS is at exactly 1.000.

Seabold will probably need plenty of help from Boston’s mediocre bullpen, which sports a 3.62 ERA on the season. This unit will likely be without Austin Davis (2.16 ERA), who’s worked two straight nights.

But let’s not shortchange the Red Sox offense’s ability to plate runs, as this lineup is tops in the majors in batting average (.260). They’re also fourth in OPS against lefties in 2022 (.781), which spells early trouble for Cortes.

J.D. Martinez has slugged his way to a .389 batting average and a 1.140 OPS against lefty pitchers this season. Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers haven’t been too shabby against southpaws either, hitting .368 and .329, respectively. 

Prediction: Over 9.5 (-107 at Unibet)

Best bet

The Yankees’ proclivity to mash taters has worked well for them for most of this season and should serve them well against Seabold and the modest Red Sox relief corps.

However, Boston could turn this one into a home run derby in the first few innings before the New York bullpen comes in to settle things down. Cortes has allowed 11 homers this season, with eight of them coming on the road. There’s no great disparity in innings responsible for that split, as “Nasty” has worked 44 2-3 innings as a visitor, and 40 1-3 innings on his own mound this year.

The Red Sox are not a tremendous power-hitting team, as they’re just 20th in home runs hit per game (0.95), but Devers jumped the yard twice on Thursday night, bringing his round-tripper total to 19 on the season.

All Boston needs to do is get some runners on in front of him to see this first five innings total sail Over.

Pick: Over 5 first five innings (-120 at PointsBet)

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