The Yankees are beginning to look towards next season, calling up their top prospects for a debut against Justin Verlander and the Astros on Friday. Though the buzz is palpable, will it ultimately be enough to make this a high-scoring game?
Let’s break down Yankees vs. Astros in our MLB picks and predictions for September 1.
Yankees vs Astros odds
Yankees vs Astros predictions
I’m not ready to call Yankees starter Carlos Rodon over the hill, or a bust, or anything close to that quite yet. The left-hander has been exceptional in years past, and his fastball and slider still grade out as good as ever.
Rodon has also begun to look more like himself lately. The southpaw has been consistently enhancing his performance as he regains his peak form, evident by his xBA staying below .200 in three out of his last four starts. Although he hasn't been prolific in generating ground balls, Rodon has recently achieved a striking strikeout rate, surpassing 33% in two of his last three appearances.
New York faces a challenge with its offense, as it hasn't performed exceptionally well, registering a 93 wRC+ in the past two weeks. Although there are promising prospects on the horizon, relying on them against the formidable Justin Verlander, who has been in excellent form for the Astros, may be a daunting proposition.
Verlander hasn’t been the dominant Verlander of old on account of fewer strikeouts, but since returning to Houston he’s now struck out 29 batters in 29 innings. He is certainly pitching well enough to get us to the Under here.
My best bet: Under 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Yankees vs Astros same-game parlay
Under 8.5
Torres 2+ Total Bases
Judge 2+ Total Bases
While it might look like a strange move to back the Under and then take the Over on two hitter props, I think it’s warranted in the case of Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge — two of the hottest hitters for the Yankees right now.
Verlander’s fastball has been his biggest weakness with a .254 xBA against and a .430 xSLG. In Torres and Judge, we have two excellent fastball hitters who own a run value of 2.3 or greater in the second half of the season versus the pitch.
Torres has also been scalding hot with a .308 batting average in the second half, and while Judge has struggled since the break, he’s still slugging .609 in the last two weeks. Considering the state of Verlander’s fastball, I think both should rack up at least two total bases.
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Yankees vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Because I’m higher than most on Rodon, I’d have to say you should consider the Yankees in this spot if you’re aiming for a moneyline bet.
The Yankees have not hit all that well in the last two weeks, grading out as a below-average offense by every metric. But with some fresh faces in the order on Friday, they have a good chance to put together a much better offensive performance.
Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells will debut in this one, shoring up two massive holes in the Yankees’ order at catcher and in left field.
Over at DraftKings, just 10% of the moneyline bets are on the Yankees, but they account for a bigger chunk of the handle at 16%.
Houston has been red-hot at the dish, ultimately making it tough to fade this team with a poor offensive club, but I expect a better showing for Rodon, who has begun to post improved numbers over his last three starts.
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Trend to know
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 away games (+5.35 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros
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Yankees vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, September 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video, AT&T SportsNet-Southwest |
Starting pitchers
Carlos Rodon (1-4, 5.97 ERA): Rodon has gone 10 2/3 innings over his last two outings, giving up just three earned runs on 10 hits with eight strikeouts. His seven punchouts last time out were a season high in eight starts.
Justin Verlander (10-6, 3.06 ERA): Since coming over in a trade with the Mets, Verlander has posted a 2.79 ERA in five starts for the Astros. In his last two outings, he hasn’t allowed a single run over 11 innings with just seven hits against him and 16 strikeouts.
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