The Oakland Athletics’ winning streak is a thing of the past, as the worst franchise in baseball is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games heading into its series opener with the New York Yankees tonight. Bettors have shortened up the home side, as the A’s sit as +115 home dogs in the MLB odds with a total sitting at 8.
With the stolen-base rate up and it becoming a popular market to bet on, it’s giving bettors some solid value on high-end base-stealers and their Unders. Tonight is no different with Esteury Ruiz paying -125 to not steal a bag.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Athletics on Tuesday, June 27.
Yankees vs A's odds
Yankees vs A's predictions
Esteury Ruiz leads the league in stolen bases with 39 over 77 games played. However, his stolen base prop is getting out of touch with reality. The Under can be had for -125 at Betway, and might even be playable to -145.
Ruiz has a stolen base in 33 of his 77 games (42.8%) and has been caught seven times. He’ll face a Yankees pitcher in Jhony Brito who has seen four stolen-base attempts this season (46 IP), with three of those being successful. Jose Trevino would be the preferred catcher today vs. stolen bases, as his caught stealing% is double that of Kyle Higashioka’s.
Ruiz has also found himself batting ninth in the Athletics order of late and was at the bottom of the order two games ago vs. a right-handed pitcher in Jose Berrios. If the outfielder finds himself hitting ninth today, this Under will shorten up substantially, so an early bet is advised.
Ruiz also has to get on base — something he hasn’t done in three straight games. He’s posted an awful .259 OBP this month and just doesn’t take a lot of walks, with only 13 on the season over 338 plate appearances. Ruiz’s Under 0.5 hits at +215 (bet365) is also something I’m playing for a half unit and projects well with THE BAT X numbers.
I will play an Under stolen base at -125 any day of the week.
My best bet: Ruiz Under 0.5 stolen bases (-125)
Yankees vs A's same-game parlay
Ruiz Under 0.5 stolen bases
F5 Under 4.5
Ruiz Under 0.5 hits
The full fade on Ruiz is on with a decent correlated three-legger that is paying +500 when the true odds are +800. Ruiz doesn't walk much with a 3% walk rate over his short MLB career, and he has been struggling at the dish this month with a sub-.300 OBP. He's also hitless in three straight games and could find himself hitting ninth for the second time in three games.
The market for this F5 Under 4.5 has moved considerably this morning, so it's nice to be on the ride side of the movement there. This is a matchup of two of the worst offenses in June, and a Brito vs. Paul Blackburn matchup is much better than it sounds for run suppression.
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Yankees vs A's moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The state of the New York offense is so bad that the Yankees are just -135 road favorites in Oakland tonight with a neutral pitching matchup. Bettors have actually steamed the A’s (who opened at +125), while the total of 8 hasn’t seen much movement since opening.
Since Aaron Judge hit the shelf, the Yankees have gone 8-10 SU and have seen their odds lengthen along the way. They’ve constantly been rotating their No. 2 hitter, and the play in right field has been horrendous with Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Giancarlo Stanton, and Oswaldo Cabrera combing to go 10-for-60 while filling in for the reigning AL MVP.
New York is hitting .215 over the last 30 days, which ranks 29th in baseball. There isn’t much to like about the A’s either, which has me leaning to the Under.
Oakland is 1-10 SU following their seven-game winning streak that still might be on the minds of bettors. The Athletics just flew cross-country following a 12-1 loss to Toronto on Sunday, and finished 1-5 SU in that road trip.
The home side is hitting .218 over the last 30 days, which ranks just one spot ahead of the Yankees in 28th place. Ramon Laureano is out and Brito looked solid in his most recent call-up start, holding the Mariners to two hits of shutout ball over seven innings of work. Oakland will also have one of its best on the mound in Blackburn, whose low Ks, high strikeouts, and reasonable HR/FB rate has him with a solid 2.99 FIP.
I’m keeping the bullpens out of this game and hitting the F5 Under 4.5 at -135 or better. It’s a pitcher’s park, and both average starters should be able to navigate their opposing offenses. Even with decent wind blowing out, the Coliseum ranks as the fourth-worst park for HRs and fifth-worst for runs. The Under F5 has been moving, but there are still plenty of 4.5s out there. I'd play the Under 4 at even money or better.
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Trend to know
The Under is 9-1-3 in the Athletics’ last 13 during Game 1 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. A's
Yankees vs A's game info
| Location: | Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-California, YES |
Starting pitchers
Jhony Brito (4-3, 4.89 ERA): Brito will make his second straight start since being called up, and his 11th with the Yankees this season. He has pitched to his numbers this year with a high walk rate (19 BB in 49 innings) and issues with his HR/FB rate (12.2%) hurting his FIP. He’s predominately a groundball pitcher who uses his sinker around a third of the time, and has an xBA of .276 on his primary offering. The Yankees are 7-4 SU when he starts, but he could struggle to get run support with a flailing offense. THE BAT projects 91 pitches, 16.9 outs, 4.03 strikeouts, and 2.51 earned runs.
Paul Blackburn (0-0, 4.21 ERA): Blackburn will be making his sixth start of the season after joining the rotation in late May. He owns a sub-3.00 FIP thanks to a solid 30:7 K/BB ratio over 25-plus innings while allowing just two home runs. He does give up hits, but also faces one of the weakest lineups in baseball tonight that ranks dead last in average at .220 on the year. The A’s are 2-3 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 98 pitches, 18.2 outs, 5.08 strikeouts, and 2.82 earned runs.
