Twins vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Eflin, Rays Cruise in Series Opener

A pair of division-leading American League clubs will kick off a three-game set at the Trop as Louie Varland and the Minnesota Twins take on Zach Eflin and the Tampa Bay Rays.

With how good Eflin and the Rays have been at home coupled with the injuries to the Minnesota offense, should bettors turn to some derivative prop markets to get more value out of a Tamp Bay moneyline that continues to get shorter?

Find out in my free MLB betting picks for Twins vs. Rays below.

Twins vs Rays odds

Twins vs Rays predictions

Despite both teams leading their respective divisions, the difference in these teams is significant and shows in the moneyline that's 60+ points in favor of the Tampa Bay Rays and still moving in that direction as of 11 a.m. ET. 

Tampa is 26-6 at home this year, 25-15 SU vs. winning teams and is facing a below-.500 road team with a losing record vs. winning teams. Tampa has a league-best +125 run differential but at home, this might be an even better team with a +2.28 run differential per game at the Trop.

The Rays have also been near perfect when Zach Eflin gets the ball as the club is 9-1 SU when he starts and he’s been credited with the win of seven of those contests.

He’s pitched six games at home and has a perfect 6-0 record with a 2.19 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. Like other Tampa pitchers, Eflin’s home splits are significant and now he faces a weak Minnesota Twins lineup that could still be missing Carlos Correa.

The Twins shortstop has been out since June 2 with plantar fasciitis while backup Royce Lewis is also dealing with a knock after a big collision on Sunday at first base. The list of potential missing bats is long as Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and some other role players are all likely spectating tonight.

With Eflin’s success at home and a decent hitting matchup for the Tampa offense vs. Louis Varland who can give up the long ball and faces one of the best offenses in baseball, if Tampa is picking up the win, Eflin will more than likely be credited with it in the boxscore. 

He’s currently +175 to record the win and considering Varland is +215 and the Rays sit as -180 moneyline favorites, there's certainly some value there.

My best bet: Zach Eflin to record the win (+175 at bet365)

Twins vs Rays moneyline analysis

The Rays return home tonight after a seven-game road trip, where they've won 26 of their 32 games and are set up nicely to continue padding their lead in the AL East with a matchup vs. an injured Minnesota offense. 

It will be tough for the Twins and starter Louie Varland to hold down the No. 1 offense in wRC+ at home tonight and considering Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and a handful of Opening Day starters are more doubtful than probable, it’s a solid matchup for the Rays on offense and on the mound.

Bettors have caught on to this and have moved the opening line of Tampa as much as 20 points from opening to -175. 

Varland isn’t a bad arm to back as a heavy dog, but not in this spot vs. maybe the best home offense in baseball. He'll likely not get much run support with a depleted lineup that has to face a pitcher who has been perfect at home.

Zach Eflin has made six starts at the Trop and has picked up the win in each of them. The Rays are 9-1 in his 10 starts this year and although the Twins’ bullpen is rested after a Monday off, the Rays’ bullpen has all arms available.

Both teams lead their divisions but there's a significant gap in talent between these two teams and the injuries to the Minnesota lineup are not great when they’re facing an elite Tampa offense.

Twins vs Rays Over/Under analysis

As the Rays have been getting shorter on the ML, this total has also been getting shorter. The total opened at 8.5 at Pinnacle and currently sits at 7.5 leaning to the Over. 

For late bettors, the value on the Under is gone.

Eflin has been lights out all season and even better at home with 28 hits and three walks over 37 innings at the Trop. The possibility of him facing a Minnesota lineup without Correa, Buxton, and Lewis who has been DH’ing recently, is likely the main reason for the Under steam. 

This was already a Minnesota offense that ranked in the bottom third in average and OPS and currently sits 19th in runs/9 IP but thanks to the Rays offense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some buy-back on the Over 7.5.

Tampa leads all of baseball with a 35-24-3 O/U record and can do plenty of the heavy lifting for this Over, especially in the first game of the series where Minnesota might not want to burn any good arms if they're trailing. 

THE BAT is projecting just over five earned runs combined from both starters and neither of them to record 18 outs.

I might not want to play the full-game Over 7.5 at the heavy juice as Tampa will more than likely not get their ninth at-bat, but the Rays team total Over 4.5 at plus money is something that interests me as well as the first-five Over 4 (-110) and Rays first five -0.5 at a pick ‘em.

Twins vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Louie Varland (3-1, 3.51 ERA): Varland has impressed in his second season with the big club. He has a very respectable 39:8 K/BB ratio over 41 innings and seven starts and is coming off his best start where he blanked the Astros over seven innings and needed only 86 pitches to do so. He has elite command and a deceptive release point thanks to a long extension. The Twins are 4-3 SU in his seven starts and THE BAT projects 84 pitches, 15 outs, 4.92 strikeouts, and 2.69 earned runs.

Zach Effin (7-1, 3.30 ERA): Over his last eight starts since returning to the lineup from a back injury, Eflin has pitched to a 3.31 ERA and a 1.71 ERA (0.69 WHIP) at home. He’s given up more than three runs just twice over 10 starts and has collected at least five punchouts in 70% of those starts. He’s thrown three consecutive quality starts and the Rays are 9-1 SU when he takes the mound. THE BAT projects 91 pitches, 17.4 outs, 2.38 earned runs, and 5.36 strikeouts. 

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