The Los Angeles Dodgers (27-16) and Minnesota Twins (24-19) wrap up a three-game series with Game 3 this afternoon.
The finale will decide the series after the Dodgers took Game 1 by a score of 9-8, and the Twins came away victorious 5-1 in Game 2.
Will Game 3 be a pitching duel as expected? Let’s dive in deeper with our MLB picks and predictions for Twins and Dodgers on Wednesday, May 17.
Twins vs Dodgers odds
Twins vs Dodgers predictions
Game 1 of this series was a 12-inning thriller that saw the Los Angeles Dodgers blow an early lead only to eventually arrive back on top with a 9-8 victory. Game 2 was a surprising loss for the Dodgers, who entered as -205 favorites and lost at home in a Clayton Kershaw start for the first time since June of 2021.
Game 3 forecasts to be an enticing pitching duel between L.A.’s Dustin May and the Minnesota Twins’ Sonny Gray.
May has been stellar for the Dodgers this season and has been remarkably consistent, allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts. While that’s hard to one-up, Gray has found a way to do just that — allowing a single earned run or fewer in seven of his eight starts.
The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s and winds of 10 to 11 mph blowing out to right field. While that weather is normally a portent of runs to be scored, I think it’s already baked into the total of 8.5 in a game between two starting pitchers of this caliber.
It also helps that neither starter is a flyball pitcher. May has allowed just a single home run across 47 innings, and has been superb at limiting hard contact with a minuscule 5.3% barrel rate. His FB% of 35.3% is about league average and is the highest number of his career, so there’s a chance that stabilizes as the year progresses. Gray has a low FB% of 32.4% and effectively limits hard contact with a 6.4% barrel rate.
Sometimes there are concerns with a pitcher’s home-road splits when playing an Under, but Gray has been just fine on the road this season, posting a 2.40 ERA across 15 innings pitched. May, meanwhile, has a 3.33 ERA across 24 1/3 innings at home.
I trust both starting pitchers, but I can’t say the same about the bullpens. L.A.’s relief pitchers have been battered around to the tune of a 4.22 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Minnesota’s have been about middle-of-the-road with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but those numbers still don’t instill much confidence with the wind blowing out on a warm day against a potent Dodgers lineup.
Therefore, I will target the First Five innings market with an Under play as my best bet for Game 3. May and Gray have both been fantastic, and more importantly, have been very consistent. I’ll wager on that run of success continuing.
My best bet: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
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Twins vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
The Dodgers opened at -160, but the line has since come in a bit. Currently, the best price available on the home team is -135, while the best comeback on the Twins is +128.
Minnesota has had a sustained run of poor performance on the road, going just 17-38 in its last 55 road games. Interleague play hasn’t exactly gone as planned, either, as the Twins have won just 20 of their last 66 games against an NL team with a winning record.
Prior to Tuesday’s 5-1 victory, Minnesota had lost 11 straight meetings with the Dodgers. The question now is whether the tide has changed, or if that performance was an anomaly.
It’s not hard to see why early money has come in on the Twins as the underdog for Game 3 given that Gray will be on the mound. His team is 5-3 across his eight starts this season, as he has posted the lowest ERA (1.39) in the MLB across qualified starters.
May is also a tough cookie, sitting in 15th on the ERA leaderboard. The Dodgers are 5-3 across his eight starts, and he hasn’t been tagged with a loss since April 11 against the San Francisco Giants.
Twins vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
The total is set at 8.5 across the board. Currently, most shops are offering even money on the Under and a -120 price on the Over.
The Twins have been an Under team this season, with an 18-22-3 O/U record. That’s to be expected when the lineup has underperformed and the pitching staff has overperformed. The Twins have been a mediocre lineup on the season, ranking 16th in both wRC+ (100) and wOBA (.315).
Minnesota has cashed the Under in four of its last five road games. Their road splits haven’t been pretty, as they rank 26th in wRC+ (81) and 25th in wOBA (.290) in games played away from Target Field.
The Dodgers have also been trending toward the Under lately, cashing in four of their last five games — all of which have come at home.
Both starting pitchers have been so effective that, naturally, the Under has been a good bet in their respective games. The Twins are 3-5 O/U in Gray’s starts while the Dodgers are an identical 3-5 O/U in May’s starts — good for a combined 62.5% Under rate.
Gray’s strikeout prop of 5.5 is appealing to the Over considering he’s tossed at least six Ks in each of his last five outings. He has a healthy strikeout rate of 30.8% and is facing a Dodgers lineup that can be had for the punchout, posting a 23.7% strikeout rate as a team.
Twins vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet Los Angeles, Bally Sports North |
Starting pitchers
Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.39 ERA): Gray has been absolutely fantastic for Minnesota, allowing one earned run or less in seven of eight starts. The 33-year-old’s 2.93 xERA and 1.89 FIP are both very strong numbers but are well above his actual ERA. His 30.8% strikeout rate is the highest it’s ever been in his 11-year career, as is his 12.4% swinging strike rate. Last time out, he allowed just a single earned run on four hits across 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs.
Dustin May (4-1, 2.68 ERA): May has been highly effective with a 2.68 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He’s been consistent, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of his eight starts. The 25-year-old’s 3.40 xERA and 3.37 FIP both do indicate some slight regression, but nothing major. His 17.5% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate could both use a bit of work. His last start resulted in a no-decision, as he allowed two earned across 6 2/3 innings against the San Diego Padres.
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The Under is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last five games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Dodgers
