It’s been a good 4-2 run to begin the week, and despite there being a handful of afternoon games on the Wednesday slate, I’ll be focusing on the later games and their pitching markets.
These are my favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Wednesday, August 27.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 27
Valdez o1.5 walks (+100)
Nelson u17.5 outs (+125)
Morales u4.5 Ks (+120)
Rockies vs. Astros
The angle: Valdez is a piss-poor command pitcher and the Rockies are too priced in here
The move: Framber Valdez Over 1.5 walks allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
The Rockies are driving this price up as Framber Valdez is not a great command pitcher and has had this total at 2.5 in some spots this year. Just over his last five starts, the Houston starter has 12 walks in 29 innings and has hit the four-walk mark twice over that small sample.
The Rockies are not a great walk team, and that’s why the price is right today, but Valdez averages a walk every three innings and is a pitcher with an 18.5 out total. He’s seeing a lot of batters and will see plenty of three-ball counts.
THE BAT is projecting 1.7 walks on 94 pitches. He is 15-10 to the Over on this total this year.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
The angle: Nobody is getting deep vs. the Brewers
The move: Ryne Nelson Under 17.5 outs (+125 at BetMGM)
Pitching against the Brewers in the current Arizona vs. Milwaukee series has been tough sledding for the visitors, and I’m expecting more of that today.
The Brewers chased Brandon Pfaadt after eight outs yesterday in a 9-8 win, while Eduardo Rodriguez was even shorter, going five outs in a 7-5 Milwaukee win.
Despite the lack of depth from the starters, the Arizona bullpen is in decent shape, as no RP has pitched in back-to-back days. There are at least three middle relievers available and three high-leverage arms.
Ryne Nelson is projected for 89 pitches and 16.14 outs vs. the best offense in baseball over the last 30 days by a significant amount. The Arizona starter has also given up 18 runs over his last 28 innings (five starts) and carries a 5.01 ERA on the road compared to a 2.42 ERA at home.
Command away from his home mound is also an issue, with 21 walks across 55 road innings. That will hopefully run up his pitch count today and get him out before completing six. I would play this to even money.
Tigers vs. Athletics
The angle: Regression is coming for the rookie in a tough setting and matchup
The move: Luis Morales Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120 at bet365)
The pitching conditions are not great in Sacramento with 85-degree weather and 8-mph wind blowing straight out to center.
Luis Morales has three MLB starts to his name, and although he has hit the Over 4.5 Ks in two of them, they came against some of the best K% matchups in the Angels and Mariners, who rank No. 1 and No. 2 in K% over the last 30 days.
Things will be tougher here for the starter, who is projected for 4.5 Ks on 83 pitches. It might be close to a 55% projected winner, but that plus money is gorgeous.
The rookie throws gas but has also stranded 90% of his runners and has a .236 BABIP through four games — unsustainable. He also has just a 7.6% swinging strike rate, which is well below the league average of 11%.
He’s been lucky, and I’m hoping that luck runs out.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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