The Wednesday card went 1-2 as the Jays shouldn't have been pitching to Aaron Judge, and it almost cost them. Tonight's schedule offers a four-game late slate, which means slim pickings. Don’t force it if these numbers are gone.
These are my three MLB player props for starting pitchers on Thursday, July 24.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 24
Angels F5 Team Total o2.5 (-120)
Olson o1.5 walks allowed (+100)
Gray Under 17.5 outs (-110)
Mariners vs. Angels
The angle: The Angels are the betting favorite to be the highest-scoring offense today and that scoring is coming early
The move: Angels F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Why does FanDuel have the Los Angeles Angels as the betting favorite to be the highest-scoring team today at +650? Logan Evans.
He is the odd man out of a Seattle Mariners rotation that still might be the best in the AL. He might own a 3.81 ERA, but he allows a lot of hits (more than one per inning), walks his fair share, and has a 5.51 expected ERA.
He’s also a flyball pitcher in a park that has 10-mph winds blowing out, and the Angels offense is slugging at a Top-6 rate out of the break. His Over 2.5 earned runs is a healthy -150, which is too steep for me despite THE BAT projecting 3.06 ERs.
So, let’s go off the player prop board and take the Angels’ team total Over 2.5 for the first five innings at -120 at DK. I also like the full game TT Over 4.5 at -130, but head to the 1st X innings tab and hit that Over. It’s -120 for that, but -150 for o2.5 ER, and Evans likely won’t go more than five frames.
Jays vs. Tigers
The angle: Olson's leash could be longer and the Jays take a lot of pitches
The move: Reese Olson Over 1.5 walks allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
I’m adding on to my TOR/DET card and getting Detroit Tigers starter Reese Olson to issue at least a pair of free passes. He walks about a batter every three innings, but the Toronto Blue Jays are very tough outs and take a lot of pitches. They are one of seven teams with a 10% or better walk rate since the All-Star break, and Olson hasn’t had a single start in his 12 turns of zero-walk baseball.
He is 7-5 to the Over on this prop this year, but just 1-4 O/U in his last five, which is why we are likely getting even money. His leash could be longer in the opener of a four-game set, and 90 pitches and two walks at +100 is better than a coin flip. Buy to -115 with your MLB picks.
Padres at Cardinals
The angle: The heat and Gray's leash should have him out before retiring 18 batters
The move: Sonny Gray Under 17.5 outs (-110 at DraftKings)
Sonny Gray is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up nine runs on just 66 pitches over 10 outs. It marks the third straight start where he has failed to get more than 15 outs and the fifth time across his last seven.
The 94-degree temperature won't help him vs. a low K% San Diego Padres team, either. Busch Stadium might be the toughest place to pitch today, considering the heat and humidity.
Gray doesn't have a long leash, and 17.5 outs in bad conditions is always a good look to the Under. Over his last 13 starts, he has thrown more than 90 pitches just once and gone 85 or fewer in seven of them. Buy to -125.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
