That’s two 2-1 SU days to get the week going, including a solid +180 pitcher to win vs. the lowly Rockies — and there's more where that came from.
It’s a small slate Thursday with lots of rain, so the pitcher props are slim pickings, but as always, there are some spots to target. These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Thursday, May 22.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 22
Suarez to record win (-130 at bet365)
Smith-Shawer o16.5 outs (-120 at DraftKings)
Kirby u4.5 hits allowed (+125 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Phillies vs. Rockies
The angle: Don't stop fading the Rockies.
The move: Ranger Suarez to record win (-130 at bet365)
The risk on this prop yesterday was Taijaun Walker getting deep enough. He went 15 outs, got the win, and needed just 68 pitches. That +180 turned out to be a steal. Today, it’s 100 points shorter but still a play with Ranger Suarez, who has an out market at 17.5 (Over -150). He's going 18 outs, and the Phillies will get to beat up starter German Marquez.
Philadelphia is -320 on the moneyline and -250 in the first five innings yet Suarez, who's projected to go six innings, is -130 to get the win? Colorado's bullpen might be the worst part of this historically bad team. I'm playing this prop almost every day at -130 or better. It was -120 at DraftKings this morning.
Braves vs. Nationals
The angle: With little rain risk and extra rest, AJ Smith-Shawer is going to mow down this lineup once more.
The move: AJ Smith-Shawver Over 16.5 outs (-120 at DraftKings)
Looking into pitcher outs when the total is 16.5 is always advised. It’s the no-man’s land of pitcher outs and a number that can swing either way.
I know that THE BAT is projecting this well for the Under and the influence it has on the market, but I like this Over today with very little risk of rain.
AJ Smith-Shawver is on extra rest after having his start yesterday postponed due to rain. He's gone Over this number in three straight starts and has pitched up to 99 pitches of late, getting to 24 outs in that start. He's pitching to a 0.46 ERA over those three games, and if not for some walk issues, he could be getting even deeper.
The Nationals just saw him one start ago, and although I usually give the edge to the offense due to familiarity, Smith-Shawer diced up this lineup, going 18 outs on 86 pitches and allowing just two hits and an unearned run.
Mariners vs. Astros
The angle: George Kirby is making his first MLB start this year and will not have a long leash.
The move: George Kirby Under 4.5 hits allowed (+125 at bet365)
This is still good at the other +115s available. George Kirby is making his first start of the season with the Mariners after throwing three games in the Minors.
He got up to 68 pitches in his last Triple-A start where he went just 12 outs. He will not get pushed today; you can expect him to land in the 70-80 pitch range.
He's facing a Houston lineup that isn’t anything more than average this year. He has a walk prop set at 0.5, and he's paying just +105 for the Under. He's not getting deep, and any bet on low-volume here is a good one — except the walks, as I need a better price than +105 for any no-walk bet.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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