It was Groundhog Day yesterday with a third straight 1-2 SU day. The Tarik Skubal Under 18.5 outs loss hurt the most with the lefty going 19 outs as his stuff fell apart in the seventh before getting yanked.
It’s a small slate with getaway games, which can be a landmine. Let’s clear the board, shall we?
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Thursday, May 15.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 15
Wilson u1.5 walks allowed (+135)
Martinez o17.5 outs (-125)
Sauer o3.5 Ks (+125)
Today's SP best bets
White Sox vs. Reds
The angle: Some cluster outings are pushing the price up on a short-leashed pitcher
The move: Bryse Wilson Under 1.5 walks allowed (+135 at DraftKings)
It’s not a packed slate today but Bryse Wilson’s Under 1.5 walks projects well at 1.59 free passes, per THE BAT. A lot of this has to do with a short leash of just 79 projected pitches on the road in a park where he can get hit around and hit the showers early.
He’s transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation and has gone Over this number in all three of those starts, but his command was good in the 'pen with just three walks over nine games and 12+ innings pitched.
His career walk numbers have him at about a walk every three innings, and he is not expected to get 18 outs today in a tough setting. His clustered walks have pushed this number pretty high.
White Sox vs. Reds
The angle: There are more pitches in the tank for Martinez if needed
The move: Nick Martinez Over 17.5 outs (-125 at FanDuel)
I’m going against the projections here on this Over. The Cincinnati Reds starter has hit this Over in three straight starts and has not needed to pitch more than 86 pitches in any of them.
THE BAT is projecting 86 pitches here for Nick Martinez, but there might be more in the well if the Reds need it from him. It looks like his leash is six innings even at sub-80 pitches, but there is room for more pitches.
He’ll face the light-hitting White Sox, which is a blessing for efficiency, and there aren’t many better at pitches/PA than Martinez. He is using 3.7 pitches per batter, which is a Top-10 mark in baseball. The projections have such an influence on these props that waiting will likely get you the best number here.
Athletics vs. Dodgers
The angle: Sauer is a bulk reliever who could get 15 outs
The move: Matt Sauer Over 3.5 strikeouts (+125 at BetRivers)
This one has some risk, but the plus money on the Over Ks is worth the risk here. Matt Sauer is a bulk reliever who is getting his first start today. THE BAT is projecting a good leash of 74 pitches and Over 3.5 strikeouts.
He pitched on May 11 but threw just nine pitches across three outs. In his two biggest bulk games, he threw five innings on 78 pitches and struck out four, and went four innings on 42 pitches, struck out four, and picked up the save.
There is room for a good 15 outs here vs. an Athletics lineup that strikes out at an above-average rate.
On the season, the six-foot-four right-hander has 22 Ks to just two walks across the MLB and Triple-A, and is about a K/inning guy who is efficient.
Not intended for use in MA.
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