The afternoon pitcher props have been a grind this week. It's been a profitable month, but a nasty Tuesday-Thursday run hasn’t helped. I do have every game to dig into today, so here’s to a big Friday.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Friday, August 8.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 8
Woodruff o17.5 outs (-105)
Scherzer o15.5 outs (+120)
Ginn Over 4.5 strikeouts (+128)
Mets vs. Brewers
The angle: Woody has been efficient and is getting more of a leash
The move: Brandon Woodruff Over 17.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)
I’ve learned not to fade Brandon Woodruff. He has logged a quality start in four of his five outings this year, and his leash is getting longer heading into a home matchup vs. a struggling New York Mets offense.
The Milwaukee Brewers starter has gotten 18 outs on 70, 62, 85, and 88 pitches this season and could hit the 90-pitch mark today vs. the Mets, who are hitting .211 over the last two weeks and rank 25th in wRC+.
This market opened at 16.5 and has since moved to 17.5, where I’d buy it to -120/-125. Woodruff is efficient, getting more of a leash, and has a 37:4 K/BB rate across 28+ innings. We should not be fading him with our MLB picks.
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
The angle: This might be the biggest pitching matchup of our generation and Max might be all the way past a thumb issue
The move: Max Scherzer Over 15.5 outs (+120 at Caesars)
I had my doubts about Max Scherzer getting back to form with his thumb injury and age-41 season. I was wrong. He has gone 18 outs in three of his last four games and got up to 96 pitches two starts ago vs. the Tigers, where he struck out 11 over 21 outs.
The Toronto Blue Jays veteran has a tough matchup on the road vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers, but that is priced in here, and LA hasn’t been stacking runs of late with just 47 over its last 12 games.
Scherzer should get to 90+ pitches today, and with it being a series opener, skipper John Schneider might want to spare Toronto's bullpen. Play this to even money and look for some sub-20 pitch innings. One solid 10-pitch inning can go a long way on an over on a small total.
Athletics vs. Orioles
The angle: Ginn's 4.75 projected K's make his Over the best +EV Over K prop on the board today
The move: JT Ginn Over 4.5 strikeouts (+128 at bet365)
The Athletics' JT Ginn has been a K/inning pitcher this year and could be in for a bump in workload after moving to the rotation and throwing 85 pitches in his last start.
He has failed to clear this number in back-to-back outings, but in his first four starts earlier in the season, he posted six, seven, two, and seven punchouts over just 17 2/3 innings.
THE BAT is projecting 4.75 Ks on just 83 pitches, making it the best Over K prop of the board.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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