MLB Starting Pitcher Props & Picks for July 18: SP Prop Angles and Edges

After getting more rest during the All-Star break, look to Tyler Glasnow to shake off the rust and look like himself again while facing the Brewers.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
Jul 18, 2025 • 13:28 ET • 4 min read
Tyler Glasnow Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (31) pitches.

Baseball is back, but it’s a tough slate to cover as the markets have been open since yesterday for games where pitchers were announced early. It’s the back-nine for the MLB season, but there are still plenty of edges and angles to dig into. 

These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Friday, July 18. `

Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 18

  • Dodgers Glasnow Over 16.5 outs (-105)
  • Guardians Cecconi Over 1.5 walks allowed (+135)
  • Nationals Soroka Under 5.5 hits allowed (-140)

Brewers vs. Dodgers

The angle: Glasnow could push into the 90s today in terms of a pitch count with all the rest

The move: Tyler Glasnow Over 16.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)

Tyler Glasnow returned to the rotation on July 9 and threw five innings of two-hit baseball vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, whom he will see again tonight — this time on his home mound. 

He threw 85 pitches in that game and might be able to get deeper in his second start since missing two months due to shoulder inflammation. He looked great before the break, and the extra rest is nothing but good for him.

He could get up to 90 pitches today and hopefully shook off the rust of his command as his three walks drove up his pitch count in his return.

THE BAT is projecting 17.13 outs for the stud starter, who is one of the better arms in baseball when he is healthy. 

Athletics vs. Guardians

The angle: The price is everything and his leash is longer than usual

The move: Slade Cecconi Over 1.5 walks allowed (+135 at bet365)

I will take most 1.5-walk props at +120 or better, but I especially love this one today. THE BAT does not love it, but that is why I’m getting a fantastic price on a pitcher who has been cashing these Overs. 

Slade Cecconi has a projected pitch count of 86 from THE BAT, which might be low considering he threw 98 and 105 pitches over his last two starts.

He is seeing a lot of batters and has had 2+ walks in three straight games and in seven of his last 10. He’s walked 18 over 55 innings, and the Athletics are an average BB% team on the season but have been taking more free passes of late, ranking 13th in BB% over the last 30 days. 

I'd buy this to +120. 

Padres vs. Nationals

The angle: Some possible rain and trade rumors could keep this leash short

The move: Mike Soroka Under 5.5 hits allowed (-140 at bet365)

There is some projected rain in Washington today that could cut short both starting pitchers, but even at his full leash, Mike Soroka’s Under 5.5 hits allowed at this price is a great bet today.

There is an Under 4.5 (+120) at DraftKings for those who don’t want to pay 40 cents, but the 5.5 is the buy to -150, and then I’d advise getting the Under 4.5 at +120. 

Soroka has allowed five or fewer hits in six of his last seven starts and doesn’t have a long leash, averaging 90.2 pitches per start over his last 10 games. THE BAT is projecting 88 pitches and 4.8 hits allowed to the San Diego Padres, who are a long way from home following the break. 

I’ll take a five-inning four-hit game for Soroka, who could give way even earlier with a rested bullpen and his name in trade talks.

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Josh Inglis - Covers
Betting Analyst

Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2018, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site's live content lineup.

Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC.

Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds. His preferred sportsbook is bet365, which he favors for its extensive range of player prop markets and live betting options.

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