Baseball is back, but it’s a tough slate to cover as the markets have been open since yesterday for games where pitchers were announced early. It’s the back-nine for the MLB season, but there are still plenty of edges and angles to dig into.
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Friday, July 18. `
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 18
Glasnow Over 16.5 outs (-105)
Cecconi Over 1.5 walks allowed (+135)
Soroka Under 5.5 hits allowed (-140)
Brewers vs. Dodgers
The angle: Glasnow could push into the 90s today in terms of a pitch count with all the rest
The move: Tyler Glasnow Over 16.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)
Tyler Glasnow returned to the rotation on July 9 and threw five innings of two-hit baseball vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, whom he will see again tonight — this time on his home mound.
He threw 85 pitches in that game and might be able to get deeper in his second start since missing two months due to shoulder inflammation. He looked great before the break, and the extra rest is nothing but good for him.
He could get up to 90 pitches today and hopefully shook off the rust of his command as his three walks drove up his pitch count in his return.
THE BAT is projecting 17.13 outs for the stud starter, who is one of the better arms in baseball when he is healthy.
Athletics vs. Guardians
The angle: The price is everything and his leash is longer than usual
The move: Slade Cecconi Over 1.5 walks allowed (+135 at bet365)
I will take most 1.5-walk props at +120 or better, but I especially love this one today. THE BAT does not love it, but that is why I’m getting a fantastic price on a pitcher who has been cashing these Overs.
Slade Cecconi has a projected pitch count of 86 from THE BAT, which might be low considering he threw 98 and 105 pitches over his last two starts.
He is seeing a lot of batters and has had 2+ walks in three straight games and in seven of his last 10. He’s walked 18 over 55 innings, and the Athletics are an average BB% team on the season but have been taking more free passes of late, ranking 13th in BB% over the last 30 days.
I'd buy this to +120.
Padres vs. Nationals
The angle: Some possible rain and trade rumors could keep this leash short
The move: Mike Soroka Under 5.5 hits allowed (-140 at bet365)
There is some projected rain in Washington today that could cut short both starting pitchers, but even at his full leash, Mike Soroka’s Under 5.5 hits allowed at this price is a great bet today.
There is an Under 4.5 (+120) at DraftKings for those who don’t want to pay 40 cents, but the 5.5 is the buy to -150, and then I’d advise getting the Under 4.5 at +120.
Soroka has allowed five or fewer hits in six of his last seven starts and doesn’t have a long leash, averaging 90.2 pitches per start over his last 10 games. THE BAT is projecting 88 pitches and 4.8 hits allowed to the San Diego Padres, who are a long way from home following the break.
I’ll take a five-inning four-hit game for Soroka, who could give way even earlier with a rested bullpen and his name in trade talks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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