Reds vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Cincinnati Takes Series in Chicago

The Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs will play the finale of a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Thursday afternoon.

The teams split the first two games of this set, with the Cubs taking the Tuesday opener 9-3 and the Reds responding with a 7-1 blowout win of their own on Wednesday.

How will the finale shake out? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Reds vs Cubs on Thursday, September 8.

Reds vs Cubs best odds

Reds vs Cubs picks and predictions

It’s always difficult to parse these end-of-year games between two teams that have been out of the playoff hunt since Memorial Day, but bettors should take a step back and wonder why the Cubs would be favored over anyone right now with the especially bad brand of baseball they’ve been playing of late.

The Cubs have dropped 12 of their last 17 overall, including eight of their last 10 tilts, and have lost four straight series. The Reds have at least shown some heart over their last 11 games, posting six victories. They have a chance to earn their second consecutive series victory in this spot.

Luis Cessa is making his fourth straight start despite beginning the season in the bullpen, as Cincinnati has endured one pitching injury after another in 2022. In 11 combined innings as a starter, Cessa has allowed five earned runs, all on homers. But there’s a chance he keeps a Chicago lineup that’s 22nd in round-trippers at home this year in check. 

Adrian Sampson counters for the Cubs, and the 30-year-old Washington native has made a habit of running high pitch counts this season. He needed 40 pitches to sit the St. Louis Cardinals down in the first inning on Friday, and 101 pitches to finish a five-inning start that he ultimately took the loss for. 

Sampson worked four-plus innings in his only outing against the Reds this year on Aug. 13, hurling 87 pitches before getting the hook. He allowed just two runs but had to work around nine baserunners. 

He could have his hands full with Aristides Aquino, who went deep twice in Wednesday’s win and is 8-for-16 with three dingers and seven RBI in his last five games. Aquino has faced Chicago nine times in 2022 and has gone 9-for-28 (.321) with five four-baggers and nine RBI.

Also swinging a hot bat for Cincinnati is Jonathan India, who owns a .357 batting average since Aug. 26. Not to be outdone in that span is TJ Friedl, who owns a .441 average in that stretch. 

Look for the Reds to build an early lead and never look back in this one.

My best bet: Reds moneyline (+130 at WynnBET)

Reds vs Cubs betting preview

Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Moneyline analysis

The Reds hold enough value on the moneyline to justify a wager.

Cessa should outduel Sampson in the early part of this game before the bullpens take over. Cincinnati’s relief corps shouldn’t inspire much confidence at the moment, as they rank 19th by ERA over the last two weeks at 4.24. But Chicago’s bullpen has been the worst in the majors in the same stretch, posting a 7.53 ERA. 

Hunter Strickland and Alexis Diaz are emblematic of the Reds’ bullpen roster at present. They share the team lead with three saves apiece since the All-Star break, but Strickland owns a 5.21 ERA in that stretch, while Diaz’s ERA is 0.95. 

The Cubs’ bullpen has suffered mightily after trading away many of their key cogs at the deadline. Rookies like Erich Uelmen – who’s surrendered six earned runs in his last 2 2-3 innings of work – have been tasked with clutch situations by manager David Ross. 

The Reds – who are 5-2 in their last seven road games against right-handed starters, and 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with losing records – should handle business against the Chicago’s untrustworthy pitching staff..

Over/Under analysis

Each offense has had its day in the sun in this series, with the Cubs plating nine runs on Tuesday and the Reds roaring back with seven runs on Wednesday. However, neither of these offenses has been able to sustain that kind of firepower over long stretches, hence why both clubs are mired well under the .500 mark in September. Total bettors should lean toward the Under in this spot.

Cessa recorded his best outing of the year for the Reds against the Colorado Rockies on Friday, holding them to two runs on four hits and two walks over five frames. He tossed 69 pitches in that start and could build upon that here.

Sampson takes on a Cincinnati offense that’s sixth-worst in the majors in runs per game on the road at 3.61.

Trend bettors should note that the Under is 8-3 in the Cubs’ last 11 home games against teams with losing records, and 4-0 in the Reds’ last four games when their opponent allows five or more runs in their previous affair.

Reds vs Cubs game info

• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Thursday, September 8, 2022
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: YouTube

Starting pitchers

Luis Cessa (3-2, 5.18 ERA): Cessa has been tasked with a starting role over his last three outings as pitching injuries continue to pile up for Cincinnati this season. The results are not bad so far, as he’s authored a 4.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 11 innings. He blanked the Cubs over one inning when he last saw them on Aug. 13.

Adrian Sampson (1-5, 3.95 ERA): Sampson has been victimized by some long innings on the mound, like the 40-pitch first inning he endured against the Cardinals in his most recent performance on Friday. That five-inning effort was the fifth straight time he failed to reach six innings pitched in a start. 

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 11-4 in the Reds’ last 15 games following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cubs

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