The New York Yankees have their backs against the wall in Game 2 of their AL Wild Card series against the Boston Red Sox.
New York wasted a gem from Max Fried last night with the bullpen blowing a lead and Trent Grissom striking out with bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.
That said, my Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions are betting on the home side to even the series today thanks to a fast start.
Here are my best free MLB picks for Wednesday, October 1.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 predictions
Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1?
The New York Yankees have the better starter tonight and also have more offensive firepower than the Boston Red Sox. That will be enough for them to bounce back with a win at home in Game 2.
Red Sox vs Yankees best bet
Yankees -0.5 F5 (-110)
The Yankees struggled to hit against Boston ace Garrett Crochet last night, but there's a big drop off from Crochet to today's starter in Brayan Bello.
Bello pitched to a 3.35 ERA in 28 starts but his expected ERA was significantly worse at 4.42. He has a 5.40 ERA in his last five starts, which includes an outing against the Yankees where he surrendered four runs in five innings.
The Yankees respond with lefty Carlos Rodon, who pitched to a 3.09 ERA (3.32 xERA) with an OBA of .188 through 33 starts.
Not only do the Yankees have the advantage on the mound in Game 2, but they also have edge at the plate.
New York led the majors in OPS during the regular season (.787), with that number surging to .859 in the final two weeks. Boston had an OPS of .745 during the regular season, with that dipping to .706 in the last two weeks.
When you also factor in home-field advantage and the fact that their season is on the line, bet on the Bronx Bombers to come out strong and have a lead after five innings.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
Rodon is in the Top 15th percentile of pitchers in whiff rate and the Top 25th percentile in strikeout rate (25.7%). The Red Sox are 24th in the majors in whiff rate while also sitting in the Bottom 10 in strikeout rate against lefties (23.1%).
I'm also expecting Aaron Boone to let Rodon pitch deeper than usual since his bullpen got lit up as soon as he sat Fried last night.
Rob Refsnyder was the leadoff batter for Boston last night and went 0-for-2 at the dish with a walk. That said, Refsnyder hit .302 against lefties this year and will likely lead off again since Jarren Duran struggles against southpaws.
Refsnyder has a history of dominating Rodon, going 6-for-17 in his career with a homer and three doubles against the southpaw.
Red Sox vs Yankees SGP
- Yankees -0.5 F5
- Rodon Over 5.5 strikeouts
- Refsnyder Over 0.5 total bases
Red Sox vs Yankees home run pick for Game 1
Jazz Chisholm home run (+525)
Jazz Chisholm finished the regular season with 31 homers in just 130 games. He slugs .508 with the platoon advantage and has gone 5-for-15 with a homer against Bello in his career.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: Boston +140 | New York -170
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125)
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have covered the F5 run line in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.95 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and Game 1 info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, October 1, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (11-9, 3.35 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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