Playoff implications are on the line Sunday afternoon at PETCO Park as the Boston Red Sox take on the San Diego Padres.
With Dylan Cease getting the start, the Padres are well-positioned at home and I explain why in our Red Sox vs. Padres predictions.
See why I’m backing the home team with my MLB picks for August 10.
Red Sox vs Padres prediction
Red Sox vs Padres best bet: Padres moneyline (-145)
The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres are two teams of similar caliber. Both would win a Wild Card spot in their respective leagues if the season ended today, and they have nearly identical records (Boston is 65-53, San Diego is 65-52).
However, a closer inspection reveals that the Padres hold some advantages.
They’ve been lights out at home, going 37-20 at Petco Park. Boston has struggled on the road (26-31), which is to be expected from a young team.
San Diego should have a starting pitching advantage. Dylan Cease has vastly underperformed his metrics this season with a 4.60 ERA. His 3.41 xERA is supported by an elite .221 xBA, 30.6% K rate, and 108 Stuff+.
Brayan Bello, on the other hand, is fortunate to have a 3.03 ERA. It’s not supported by his 4.41 xERA or 4.25 xFIP, and he doesn’t make batters miss (14th percentile whiff rate) or limit base knocks (23rd percentile xBA).
San Diego has a 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days (Boston 113 wRC+). The bullpen has also been better, posting a 3.30 SIERA in that span (Boston 4.25).
Caesars QuickPick: Our Red Sox vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Fernando Tatis Jr. has strong reverse splits this season, tattooing right-handed pitchers to the tune of a 140 wRC+, and he performs well at home (149 wRC+).
Ryan O’Hearn has a favorable platoon advantage given his success against right-handers (138 wRC+) and Bello’s struggles against lefties (4.65 FIP).
Red Sox vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Boston +120 | San Diego -132
- Run line: Boston +1.5 | San Diego -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Red Sox vs Padres trend
The Padres are 10-3 in their last 13 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Padres.
How to watch Red Sox vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Sunday, August 10, 2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, SDPA |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (8-5, 3.03 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (4-10, 4.60 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Padres latest injuries
Red Sox vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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