The Seattle Mariners host the Boston Red Sox in MLB action on Tuesday night. This is the second game in a three-game set at T-Mobile Park, and the Mariners took the opener last night.
With only one game separating these teams in the AL standings and a big gap between them and their division leaders, this series could prove pivotal in deciding the Wild Card picture. MLB betting lines opened with the M's as slim -120 home favorites with the Over/Under at 8. Here are my best free Red Sox vs. Mariners MLB picks and predictions for August 1.
Red Sox vs Mariners odds
Red Sox vs Mariners predictions
Both of these teams are giving the pill to promising 24-year-old right-handers, and while both of them have gotten rocked at times this season, they tend to have more good performances than bad.
Mariners rookie Bryce Miller has surrendered 27 hits and 21 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings against the Twins, Rangers, and Yankees. However, in his other 11 starts, he has pitched to an incredible 1.73 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP.
He has also generally been more consistent at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, posting a 2.70 ERA with a .186 OBA in eight home starts. That's good news against a Boston lineup that performs far worse away from home. The Red Sox have an OPS of .830 and plate 5.64 runs per game at Fenway, with those numbers plummeting to .698 and 4.28, respectively, on the road.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are sending Brayan Bello to the mound. In his last 10 starts, the sophomore has pitched to a 3.41 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an OBA of .223, with his only poor outing during that span coming against the A's, of all teams.
Bello also had an impressive performance against Seattle back on May 17, holding the M's to just three hits and one run across five innings.
With the Mariners and Red Sox also boasting effective bullpens (third and seventh, respectively, by ERA this season), take the Under 8 on the game total.
My best bet: Under 8 (-115 at DraftKings)
Red Sox vs Mariners same-game parlay
Under 8.5
Bello Under 5.5 strikeouts
Miller Under 1.5 walks
Although I'm expecting a strong performance from Bello, I also don't think he'll rack up that many punchouts. After all, he ranks in the Bottom 35th percentile of the majors in strikeout rate, and has gone below 5.5 strikeouts in 12 of 17 starts this year.
Meanwhile, Miller is in the Top 10th percentile in walk rate and he has walked more than a single batter in just four of 14 starts this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Red Sox vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Mariners at -120 but has shortened, with books now pricing this matchup as a pick'em. The total opened at 8 and has ticked down to 7.5 at some books, albeit juiced towards the Under.
After losing 6-2 Seattle last night, the Red Sox have now dropped three in a row. Prior to this skid, they had been one of the hottest teams in the majors, going 16-4 in their previous 20 contests. The Mariners have won five of their last six games, and with a 55-51 record, are just one game behind Boston.
The Over has gone 6-2 in Miller's last eight starts, but the Under is 7-2 in Bello's previous nine games.
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Trend to know
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Mariners
Red Sox vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, RSNW |
Starting pitchers
Brayan Bello (7-6, 3.66 ERA): The sophomore ranks in the Bottom 25th percentile of pitchers in hard hit rate, but his expected ERA still sits at a respectable 4.07. He has vastly improved from his rookie season a year ago, lowering his OBA from .315 to .245 while increasing his K/BB ratio from 2.0 to 3.2.
Bryce Miller (7-3, 3.96 ERA): In his first three career starts, Miller allowed only eight baserunners and had a 0.42 WHIP — both MLB records. He hasn't been quite that dominant since, and now sits in the Bottom 25th percentile in hard hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. That said, he has been far more effective at home, and his four-seamer is an absolute weapon with one of the highest spin rates in the majors.
