Red Sox vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bullpens Do Battle by the Bay

First it was the San Francisco Giants who grabbed a 3-2 victory in Game 1.

Fast forward to Game 2, and the Boston Red Sox grabbed a 3-2 victory of their own.

The rubber match is set for Sunday afternoon at Oracle Park. Looking at MLB odds, the visiting team is a slight favorite. 

I give one team a slight pitching advantage and lineup advantage on Sunday and therefore will be targeting them with my best bet. Read on to find out which side that is in my MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Giants on Sunday, July 30. 

Red Sox vs Giants odds

Red Sox vs Giants predictions

I like the Red Sox and will be targeting them with my best bet for Sunday’s Game 3. 

I give them the pitching advantage as both teams will use an opener and have effective bullpens but the edge lies with the Red Sox’s expected bulk reliever.

Nick Pivetta hasn’t allowed an earned run across his last 13 IP while posting 19 strikeouts across that span. He’s been in good form for most of the season with a 4.25 xERA and 4.15 FIP while posting a new career high with a 29.4% K-rate. 

San Francisco is sending Ross Stripling out for bulk innings and he simply hasn’t been effective this season. He sports a 5.38 xERA and 5.28 FIP while posting some truly disconcerting underlying statistics. 

The veteran right-hander doesn’t throw hard (24th percentile fastball velocity) and doesn’t generate much spin (16th percentile in fastball spin rate). It’s therefore not a surprise that he’s been shelled in 2023, ranking in the 11th percentile in xERA/xWOBA, the fifth percentile in xBA, and the seventh percentile in xSLG.  

He doesn’t make batters miss (16th percentile chase rate) and allows plenty of hard contact (19th percentile barrel rate). Overall, his profile is not encouraging. 

I also give Boston the advantage at the plate. 

Neither lineup has much of an advantage against right-handed pitching this season — San Francisco has a 102 wRC+ while Boston has a 105 wRC+. When isolating for recent performance, however, it’s Boston who comes out on top with a 115 wRC+ and .345 wOBA across its last 10 games while San Francisco lags behind with a 94 wRC+ and .310 wOBA. 

Since both teams will use a left-handed opener, it’s just as useful to look at each lineup’s performance as a whole lately instead of isolating for handedness. It’s Boston who comes out on top again, posting a 112 wRC+ and .340 wOBA across its last 10 games while San Francisco checks in with a 75 wRC+ and .279 wOBA. 

My handicap gives the edge to Boston both on the mound and at the dish. That’s enough for me to target the moneyline with my best bet for Sunday afternoon..

My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-110 at WynnBET)

Red Sox vs Giants same-game parlay

Red Sox ML (-125)

Under 8.5 (-125)

Rafael Devers 2+ total bases (+105)

+550 at DraftKings

This SGP will be a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Red Sox moneyline.

The first leg that I will add to this centerpiece is the Under 8.5. This is a bullpen game for both teams, so it's natural to wonder how effective both groups of relievers will be throughout Game 3. It’s splitting hairs when comparing these two — San Francisco has a 3.72 ERA in relief while Boston is slightly ahead with a 3.69 ERA. Considering the quality of both pens, I don’t forecast Game 3 to be very high-scoring. These teams have combined for just 10 runs across the first two games of the series and aren’t exactly lighting it up at the plate. These teams have combined to go 5-15 O/U in each of their last 10 games. 

The third and final leg will involves taking Boston third baseman Rafael Devers to record 2+ total bases. The 26-year-old is simply one of the game’s best players and has a good chance of doing damage in any game. I do like this matchup for him when Stripling is on the mound considering Devers has posted a .919 OPS against right-handed pitching since 2021. These two have met in the past with Devers notching seven hits in 20 plate appearances against the veteran hurler. This leg brings the final SGP odds to +550.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Red Sox vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Red Sox are a slight favorite and sit at -125 across most books while the best comeback available on the Giants is +110 at the time of this writing. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

Boston is in fine form, winning seven of its last 10 games. That’s a strong contrast to San Francisco, which is 3-7 in its last 10 games.

The Red Sox will look to take this rubber match after winning five of their last six games straight up. They’ve fared well in this matchup, taking 12 of the last 18 meetings against the Giants. 

If you’re looking to play the total, it can currently be had at a flat 8. It opened at 7.5 but has received some money to the Over, moving the line up across the board. 

While it’s possible the early money may have been in the right place, considering 7.5 is a low number, I think all the value is gone at 8 and actually prefer the Under. 

Pivetta has been on fire and faces a Giants lineup that has been the second-worst team in the league in the last 10 days. 

While I’m not a fan of Stripling’s resume, it’s a bullpen game and manager Gabe Kapler can keep a short leash. The Giants have been terrific in relief this season with a 3.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, so it’d be surprising if they drop the ball on Sunday.

Trend to know

Boston is 5-1 SU across its last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Giants

Red Sox vs Giants game info

Starting pitchers

Brennan Bernardino (1-0, 2.31 ERA): Bernadino will be the opener while Nick Pivetta (7-5, 4.11 ERA) is expected to eat up the bulk of the innings out of the pen. Pivetta’s notched a 4.25 xERA and 4.15 FIP while posting the highest K-rate of his career (29.4%). He’s thrived in this role, notching a 1.98 ERA in 41 innings of relief. The right-hander has not allowed a run across his last 12 IP. 

Scott Alexander (6-1, 3.41 ERA): Alexander is also an opener and will give way to Ross Stripling (0-4, 5.77 ERA). Stripling has had a rough go of things this season as his 5.38 xERA and 5.28 FIP are both disastrous. He doesn’t strike out batters (18.2% K-rate) and allows too much hard contact (10% barrel rate). It’s been a fall from grace after he posted a 3.01 ERA and 3.11 FIP across 134 1/3 IP with Toronto in 2022.

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