The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox at the Rogers Centre on Saturday afternoon.
The Jays blanked the Sox last night in the second contest of a three-game series and while Boston doesn't have anything left to play for but pride, Toronto is still jockeying for home-field advantage in the Wild Card round.
MLB betting lines hit the board with the Jays installed as -150 favorites with the Over/Under at 8.5. Here are our best free Red Sox vs. Jays MLB picks and predictions for October 1.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays best odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
The total opened at 8.5 for this matchup before ticking down to 8, but even with both starters looking solid lately I'm going against the line movement.
Both teams have been impressive at the dish this season and have been even better lately. The Jays had an MLB-best OPS of .778 in September while the Red Sox were third with an OPS of .764 during the month.
Red Sox rookie Brayan Bello struggled mightily early in the season. While his 1.65 ERA in his last five starts looks very impressive, his WHIP of 1.32 and opponent batting average of .243 over that span suggests that he's been more average than great.
Bello throws his sinker and four-seamer with terrific velocity but both pitches have been getting creamed by opposing batters and now he faces a Jays lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and ranks seventh in barrel rate.
The Jays have a solid starter of their own in Ross Stripling, but the veteran rarely pitches deep into his starts and has an unimpressive 4.05 ERA with a 4.22 FIP in his last six starts.
Add in a Red Sox bullpen that has been horrific since the All-Star break, with their relievers combining for an MLB-worst 5.63 ERA and an OBA of .265, and I'm taking the Over.
My best bet: Over 8 (-105 at bet365)
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays actually clinched a postseason berth on Thursday night when the Red Sox beat the Orioles. If you thought that would make the Jays rest on their laurels yesterday, you would have been very wrong, with Toronto hammering Boston 9-0.
With that victory, the Jays have now gone an incredible 14-2 in their last 16 games against the BoSox this season.
With a stacked lineup led by slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Jays lead the majors with a batting average of .261 while their OPS of .755 ranks third. The Red Sox have been solid at the plate themselves, ranking second in BA (.258) while sitting ninth in OPS (.733).
The reason that the Jays will be in the postseason while the Red Sox will be cleaning out their lockers early is due to Boston's brutal pitching.
That said, the Red Sox will send Bello to the mound today and he's looked very sharp lately after struggling early in the season. In Bello's first seven games (five starts) he had pitched to a 7.27 ERA but in his last five starts, he has reduced that number to a minuscule 1.65.
The Jays respond with veteran Stripling, who bounced between the rotation and the bullpen at the start of the season. Since taking over as a full-time starter in the beginning of June he has been very impressive, pitching a 2.80 ERA and a 3.12 FIP in 18 starts.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis
In my best bet, I mentioned why I liked the Over and the trends also support that play.
The Over is 9-4-1 in Toronto's last 14 games overall while going 6-2 in Boston's previous eight contests against a right-handed starter. The Over is also 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Toronto between these AL East foes.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays trend to know
The Over is 18-5 in the Red Sox's last 23 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
|Location:||Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON|
|Date:||Saturday, October 1, 2022|
|First pitch:||3:07 p.m. ET|
Brayan Bello (2-7, 4.39 ERA): The rookie got his career off to a rocky start by getting rocked by the Rays (twice) and the Blue Jays in his first three starts pitching to a 10.50 ERA in those three games.
He's settled into a groove lately however and pitched to a 1.65 ERA across five September starts. Bello's most effective pitch has been his changeup, and although he throws his sinker at an average of 96.3 mph and his fastball averages 97 mph, he has struggled with his location on both of those offerings.
Ross Stripling (9-4, 3.16 ERA): Stripling didn't look good in his first full season in Toronto last year but he has emerged as a very reliable starter this season, pitching to career-best numbers in WHIP (1.04), FIP (3.16), and OBA (.231). In his last start on Sunday he scattered six hits across five innings of one-run ball against the Rays.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays weather
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