Rays vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Yanks Slug Their Way to Series Sweep

The New York Yankees put together what was likely their best win of the season in a six-run comeback on Saturday, and with a series victory in hand, they’ll go for a sweep of the rival Tampa Bay Rays at home on Sunday. Will they be successful with their worst starter on the hill?

Let’s break down Rays vs. Yankees in our MLB picks and predictions for May 14.

Rays vs Yankees odds

Rays vs Yankees predictions

There is no hotter team in baseball right now than the New York Yankees, who sit atop the league in wRC+ over the last week. New York is flashing a beastly .289 ISO during the stretch, which is no surprise considering its run of dominance in the power department over the years. It’s also pretty common to see the Yankees in the Top 5 in walk rate — the position they occupy over the last seven days.

The biggest thing for me is the fact that the Yankees have struck out in just 16.7% of their plate appearances over this last week, which ranks first among all teams. I’m also very impressed considering their 76.7% contact rate, which ranks 21st. That means the Yankees are having good at-bats and making meaningful contact when they do indeed hit the baseball — they’re not just putting everything in play no matter how hard the ball is hit.

I think this is all bad news for Tampa Bay Rays starter Zach Eflin. His strikeouts are up this season, which has helped him pitch to a 2.91 ERA, but his 10.5% barrel rate and 38.9% hard-hit rate are particular causes for concern given New York’s avoiding strikeouts at an extraordinary rate. Eflin has been able to get better than 55% of all batted balls coming back at him to come on the ground, but the Yankees rank eighth in fly ball rate for the season, and fourth in the last week.

We will touch on the other side of the pitching matchup a little further down the page, but for now I’m loving the value on the Yankees as the underdogs given this matchup.

My best bet: Yankees moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)

Rays vs Yankees moneyline analysis

Clarke Schmidt is the man starting for the Yankees today, and while he’s pitched to a 5.35 ERA with a 5.47 xERA, he’s done some good things at the major-league level. His strikeout rate is up again this year to 26.2%, and his walk rate is a low 6.7%. He’s been burned by his sinker and cutter, but the expected stats would actually suggest he’s been a little unlucky with those offerings.

It just so happens that the Rays rank very poorly against the cutter, sitting 27th in run value per 100 pitches, so perhaps there’s some room for Schmidt to improve here. The Rays have also struck out in more than 21% of their plate appearances over the last week, making me feel a little better about Schmidt here.

Don’t get me wrong — both of these pitchers have been bad. With that, though, I do think the Yankees have the better offense at the moment, and may also have the better pitcher in this one.

Rays vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

With Eflin struggling in his last outing and primed for a letdown here against the Yankees, and with Schmidt entering this one amidst a terrible season, it’s no shock to see the Over getting a lot of play here. 

A strong 62% of all tickets wagered on the total here have come in on the Over 9, while 83% of the handle is on the Over as well. The opening number was eight runs, but as you can see from the splits, the line has been forced up.

I would definitely side with the Over here, if I was making a bet on the total. Schmidt has now allowed eight home runs in 35 1/3 innings this year, which seems impossible, and the Rays have been the best home-run hitting team in the league. On the other side of this one, we touched on the Yankees’ affinity for the fly ball and Eflin’s issues with barrels and hard-hit balls. I could see the ball flying out of this stadium all afternoon.

Rays vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Zach Eflin (4-1, 2.91 ERA): The season started off so well for Eflin, but he seemed to revert back to his old self last time out against the Orioles when he allowed four earned runs on seven hits over six frames to take the loss. It came on the heels of his best outing of the year, too, when he struck out 10 Pirates over seven shutout innings.

Clarke Schmidt (1-3, 5.55 ERA): For all the heat Schmidt has taken this season, and for how bad his ERA is, the right-hander has been effective in his last two turns. In those starts, he’s allowed just four earned over 10 1/3 innings with 11 strikeouts and just one home run charged to his line.

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The Rays are 1-4 in their last five games at Yankee Stadium. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.

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