Rays vs White Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Slow to Start With Stars on Mound

The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox will begin a three-game series in the Windy City on Thursday night.

By now, you know about the Rays. They’ve been one of the best stories of the young MLB season and started the year with that unbelievable undefeated run. That said, they come into this game on a two-game losing streak, held scoreless for back-to-back games via the Houston Astros. 

Chicago has had a rough time lately. It was swept by this same Tampa team a week ago in Florida, followed by three straight losses to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Chi-Sox enter this one riding a seven-game losing streak — easily their worst season stretch. 

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. White Sox on Thursday, April 27. 

Rays vs White Sox odds

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Rays vs White Sox predictions

These two pitchers faced off about a week ago, and neither was at their best. Of course, that feels weird to say, given that one gave up two earned runs in six innings while the other gave up three in four. Yet still, it's the standard they've set for themselves, and I'm backing a "bounce back" here today with a no-run scored in the first inning wager.

Now I'm not typically a proponent of this type of bet. Its internet popularity has made finding value on these lines near impossible. But, as with anything in sports betting, there should never be absolutes to any process. I priced this market at -155 and found plenty of numbers better than that. The situation is ideal.

The Rays were bound to come back to earth in some respect, and they have, over the last two games, scoring precisely zero runs through 18 innings of baseball. 

Given that most of its lineup still has massively high numbers versus its historical averages, the Rays are still due to regress some. All we need is that regression for the inning, though, and it's also due for it on this front. 

Tampa’s first in the MLB, averaging over a run per game in the first inning. As far as I could trace back data (beginning of the century), no team has ever finished a season averaging a run scored in the first inning. No team has even finished at .90 or better. Tampa is just so historically above what we've ever seen that I have to start making these types of bets because that regression will almost undoubtedly come.

The other side of this is one I hinted at earlier. Shane McClanahan and Dylan Cease are each coming off their worst starts of the season from hits and run perspective, and each is facing the same team again. Both pitchers rarely have two bad games in a row, and both have had their way facing a team for the second time, historically. So, it's hard to deny the high chance that each will start well today.

This one is simple. We're backing historical trends. We're backing what over 20 years of data has told us about teams scoring in the first inning. We're also backing an elite pitcher and a borderline elite pitcher to rebound from bad starts (at least from their standard). Bet on this game to be 0-0 after one today. 

My best bet: No run scored in the first inning (-136 at FanDuel)

Rays vs White Sox moneyline analysis

The key to deciding the winner here is deciphering which team has the pitching edge. I expect both pitchers to go deep into the game, and because of that, how they perform will have a significant effect on the outcome. Although I'm not interested in paying the premium price north of -150, I'd give that nod to McClanahan.

Like many fastball pitchers, Cease’s issue this season has been hard contact, and it's been worse this year than last. The metrics for the Rays are overblown because of just how insanely hot they've been to start the season, and we've talked about that expected regression.

However, you can't ignore that they've ranked second in hard-hit rate, third in barrel rate, and easily first in home runs to begin this season. Eventually, you must think that strength on weakness catches up with Cease here. And there may be a few runs scored to win this one.

Rays vs White Sox Over/Under analysis

I like the Under here, but I have no reason to double down with my Best Bet. My approach is if a run is scored in the first inning, then I will live bet the Under. That number will likely go to the eight range, which is Over my projection of 7.5. However, if no run is scored, I'll take my win and happily move on. 

The Under has been a hot ticket for the White Sox lately. Its games have gone that direction in four straight overall, four straight against AL East teams, and four out of five times after a loss. So that's a strong direction for a trend with them all active today. On the other side, the total hasn't dipped to 6.5 yet, but if it does, it's interesting to note that Tampa's gone Under in the last six games with a total that number or lower. 

Rays vs White Sox game info

Rays vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Shane McClanahan (4-0, 1.86 ERA): My elite pitching tier is held to a reasonably high standard, but Shane McClanahan is pretty much there, and has started this season as dominant as he left last year.

It's harder to point out the weak spots than talk about all the strengths, but if there were one, it would be that command has been a bit off with a BB rate that sits in the bottom 40% of the league. That's pretty harsh, though. McClanahan's last start came against this same White Sox team, where he went six innings and surrendered two earned runs. That was probably his worst start of the season. 

Dylan Cease (2-0, 2.73 ERA): The standards are high for him, but it's been a solid start to the season for strikeout machine Dylan Cease. His K and whiff rates are slightly behind his counterpart but still in the Top 25%.

Per usual, Cease's fastball has been the bread and butter of his arsenal, having held hitters to .152 hitting on the season. Cease last start also came against this opponent when he gave up three earned runs in four innings. 

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