Rays vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Can Rays Shine Through Clouds?

The Rays have some pop in their lineup, but have been handled by Garrett Whitlock before. See why our MLB picks are finding value behind the non-opener on the mound for the Red Sox today.

Daniel Dobish
Last Updated: Jun 3, 2023 9:01 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Garrett Whitlock MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox play the first game of a doubleheader at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. 

The game should be good to go, but showers are forecasted to roll in during the late afternoon, after Friday’s game was postponed due to showers and thunderstorms.

The Rays are in first place in the American League East Division by 3 1/2 games despite going just 2-3 across the past five outings.

The Red Sox are in dead-last place in the AL East, although they remain over .500, and every team in the ultra-competitive division has a positive run differential.

Can the Rays get back into the win column in this doubleheader opener, or will the Red Sox rain on their parade while getting a much-needed win? We’ll discuss in our MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Red Sox on Saturday, June 3.

Rays vs Red Sox odds

Rays vs Red Sox predictions

The Rays use an opener for Saturday’s Game 1, with RHP Trevor Kelley taking the mound. He’s 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his two opener appearances and eight games overall.

The Red Sox will counter with RHP Garrett Whitlock, who made his return from the injured list last Saturday after a one-month stint on the injured list. The righty eased right back into action, allowing just a lone run, three hits, and no walks with four strikeouts across five innings in the win in Arizona against the Diamondbacks.

Whitlock has done a decent job against some of the big bats for the Rays, too. While the sample size isn’t huge, Randy Arozarena is 0-for-8 with three strikeouts in his career against the righty. Both Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe have collected just two hits in 10 career at-bats against him, too.

The BoSox are glad to be back at home after going 2-5 in the final seven road games. While the visiting Cincinnati Reds were rude guests earlier this week to open the homestand, the Boston offense posted 20 total runs in the three-game set, and the Red Sox posted an 8-2 win last time out on Thursday in the series finale.

The Rays have managed just one victory in the past five games away from home. While Tampa Bay is 40-18 with a 3 1/2-game lead in the AL East, it is a very ordinary 14-12 in 26 games on the road.

I really like the home side to get the job done in the front end of the doubleheader, as Whitlock has fared well against some of Tampa’s big bats.

My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-110 at WynnBET)

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Rays vs Red Sox moneyline analysis

The Rays have rolled up an impressive plus-119 run differential this season, good for second in the majors behind the Texas Rangers. While that’s all well and good, Tampa Bay has had some issues on the road, especially lately.

Tampa has picked up just one win in the five road games, and is 0-4 in the past four on the road against a right-handed starting pitcher, while going 4-10 in the past 14 road games against a team with a winning overall record.

Boston has won four straight games against divisional foes, and more importantly, it has had its way at home against Tampa Bay, going 5-1 in the past six meetings at The Fens.

Again, I like Whitlock’s career numbers against many of the big bangers for the Rays. Look for the home side to get the job done.

Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis

The Rays suffered a big-time power outage at Wrigley Field in the interleague series earlier this week. Tampa’s offense was good for just five runs, and it had just one total run in the first two installments of the series.

The Under cashed in all three games against the Cubs, and the Under has cashed in each of the past four outings on the road for Tampa Bay. However, I think facing a familiar foe will awaken the bats for the Rays a little, although I still like the Red Sox to win.

When these teams faced each other in a four-game series at Tropicana Field from April 10-13, the Over cashed in the final three games, with 37 combined runs, or 12.3 runs per contest. One of those games did involve Whitlock.

The Over has cashed in 13 of the past 16 games against winning teams for the Rays, while going 8-0 in the past eight divisional games and 6-2 in the past eight against righties.

The Over is also 21-7 in the past 28 games inside the division for the Red Sox, while going 22-8 in the past 30 games at Fenway, and 6-2-1 in the past nine series openers.

Rays vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Saturday, June 3, 2023
First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers

Trevor Kelley (0-1, 4.91 ERA): The journeyman makes his third start as an opener this season. He’s done a decent job at home in his two appearances and one start, posting a 2.25 ERA, but he has a dismal 6.43 ERA in his lone opener appearances and five relief outings. Teams are hitting .286 against Kelley on the road, too.

Garrett Whitlock (2-2, 5.14 ERA): The 26-year-old right-hander did serve up three homers in the first meeting with the Red Sox in St. Petersburg back on April 11, his first start. He managed to turn in just three starts before going down with ulnar neuritis in the right elbow. Whitlock is healthy again, and he looks to exact a little revenge on the Rays.  

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