Two of the best teams in the AL prepare for takeoff as the Tampa Bay Rays (62-43) visit the Houston Astros (58-45).
The three-game series begins action Friday night and features an intriguing starting pitching matchup between the Rays’ Cy Young hopeful Shane McClanahan and the Astros’ Cristian Javier.
Every win is important for these clubs at this juncture, as they currently combine to hold down two of the AL’s three wild-card spots.
Get your popcorn ready, because this is a potential AL playoff preview.
Looking at the MLB odds, I think this one is slightly mispriced as a pick ‘em. Find out why below in my MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Astros on Friday, July 28.
Rays vs Astros odds
Rays vs Astros predictions
This game is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions.
The Astros are in the middle of a nine-game homestand and are in fine form, winning seven of their last 10 games. They’ve been managing to prevail despite oblique injuries to star players Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. The lineup received a huge boost when both returned to the fold this Wednesday.
In contrast, the Rays have been struggling mightily with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, and a 5-15 mark in their last 20.
After starting the season on fire, Tampa Bay has gone cold at the dish. Across their last 10 games, the Rays rank 25th in wRC+ (80) and 27th in wOBA (.279).
They face Christian Javier, a struggling two-pitch hurler that lives and dies with his fastball and slider combination. The good news for Javier is that the Rays have been abysmal against his two primary pitches, ranking 28th in wFB (-10.5) and 28th in wSL (-12.2).
If we isolate for the last 10 games, the Rays rank dead last in wSL (-11.0) by a wide margin. That’s troubling news against Javier, who possesses one of the best sliders in the game. He’s generated 23.9 wSL since the start of the 2021 season, which ranks among the best in the big leagues.
The 26-year-old right-hander has been terrific in his home ballpark throughout his four-year career, sporting a terrific 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while striking out 234 batters across 206 innings. He’s limited opposing hitters to a .183 batting average and .603 OPS.
The Astros get a huge lineup boost with the return of two of their best hitters and have already been hitting lefties well anyway, posting a 123 wRC+ and .348 wOBA since the start of July.
They face Rays ace Shane McClanahan, whose 3.95 xERA, 3.80 FIP, and 3.86 xFIP are all well above his actual ERA (2.89) and point toward regression. He’s been knocked around for 11 earned runs across his last 13 innings, and his 9.4% barrel rate has finally come back to bite him.
I don’t like anything about the Rays' current form and will be backing the home team, as I don’t believe the re-additions of Alvarez and Altuve to the lineup have been accurately accounted for in the pricing.
My best bet: Astros moneyline (EVEN at WynnBET)
Rays vs Astros same-game parlay
Astros moneyline
Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Bethancourt Under 0.5 Hits
The first leg of this SGP features my best bet — the Astros moneyline. The first prop I will add to that is Javier to go Over his strikeout prop of 5.5.
Javier has been much better at home (3.00 ERA) than on the road this season (5.25 ERA). I think it’s natural to check his game log and notice that he’s had some trouble lately, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that each of his last four starts has come on the road.
He posted a stellar 2.26 ERA at home in 2022. The year before, he had a 3.03 ERA at home, but a 4.29 ERA on the road. This is a long enough track record that I’m buying Javier is a better pitcher at Minute Maid Park. He’s struck out 10.45 batters per nine innings in his career, and I like his odds of having an effective outing, which generally involve plenty of strikeouts when he’s on.
The third and final leg will feature Tampa Bay catcher Christian Bethancourt to go Under his 0.5 hits prop at +105 odds. He’s really struggled to hit sliders this season, posting -5.5 wSL to rank Bottom 20 in the league. Among those players at the bottom of the “leader” board, he happens to be one who also isn’t elite at hitting fastballs, posting 2.1 wFB. Javier is a two-pitch hurler, which makes this handicap fairly straight forward as something I’m willing to invest in at slight plus money. That brings our correlated three-legger to +425 odds.
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Rays vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Tampa Bay is the slight favorite, but this one is essentially a pick ‘em. Check out our MLB odds tool before placing your wager to shop for the best price available.
I’m simply not buying that the Rays deserve to be a slight favorite. They’ve had their share of troubles on the road lately. They’ll look to stop a four-game road losing streak on Friday.
This will be the second series between these teams this season. Houston took two of three in the first meeting way back in late April.
The total is set at 8.5 across the board.
Tampa Bay has played to the Over this year, going 54-47 O/U. That being said, that record is largely being buoyed by its early season success. The lineup has fallen apart lately, and the team is 2-7-1 O/U across its last 10 games.
Targeting Unders when the Rays are on the road has been a profitable venture, as they are 9-18 O/U in their last 27 such games.
Houston is 36-44 O/U across its last 80 games. While McClanahan has struggled lately, this is still a difficult matchup.
For the above reasons, I lean toward the Under if playing the total.
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Trend to know
Tampa Bay is 5-15 straight up in its last 20 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Astros
Rays vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, July 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSUN, ATTH |
Starting pitchers
Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.89 ERA): The AL Cy Young odds candidate hasn’t been his usual self since hitting the shelf in late June. In two starts since his return, he’s allowed seven runs across 10 innings while allowing as many hits and walks (11) as he’s notched strikeouts. The five runs he allowed in his last start tried a career high. On the year, his 3.95 xERA and 3.80 FIP are both much higher than his actual ERA.
Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.32 ERA): Javier has come crashing back down to Earth after posting a stellar 2.54 ERA and 2.43 xERA in 2022. He’s primarily a fastball-slider guy, but that two-pitch repertoire hasn’t worked the same magic this season. Batters are notching a 9.5% barrel rate against him, which is the primary reason he’s in just the 17th percentile in xSLG.
