The Texas Rangers are closing in on the AL West lead after smashing the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday, now only trailing the Houston Astros by two games. Max Scherzer will take the mound for the visitors while Toronto hands the ball over to Hyun-Jin Ryu.
MLB odds installed Tuesday's total at 8.0 after Game 1 saw a total of 14 runs, and our MLB picks expect another offensive explosion in the Six.
I'll explain more in my Rangers vs. Blue Jays betting preview below.
Rangers vs Blue Jays odds
Rangers vs Blue Jays predictions
Despite ranking only 11th in wRC+ in the past 14 days, the Texas Rangers have a potent offense that can do some damage here. They’ve been crushing lefties all season long, ranking third in that split, and their recent performance is not too shabby either.
The Rangers have shown great power and patience in the last two weeks, as evidenced by a .198 ISO, 11.7% walk rate, and a low 19.5% strikeout rate. Their batting average (.243) is dragged down by a low BABIP (.264), which is well below their season average (.315) and the league average.
With that, we can expect some positive regression for Texas in terms of BABIP, especially with its strong power and plate discipline numbers. The Rangers should be able to hit the ball hard and often against Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has relied on strikeouts to pitch around issues with hard-hit balls.
The Toronto Blue Jays, meanwhile, have finally found their groove at the plate. They rank third in wRC+ in the past 14 days, showing great patience (13% walk rate), contact skills (17.2% K-rate) and consistency (.289 BA). A boom-or-bust lineup that used to hunt homers has learned how to hit the ball with regularity.
I like both offenses in this spot and will play the Over to nine runs.
My best bet: Over 8 (-115 at SIA)
Rangers vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Over 8.5
Kiermaier Over 0.5 hits
Garver 2+ TB
I’ve already discussed why I like the Over — the Rangers have been excellent against lefties, ranking third in wRC+, and Hyun-Jin Ryu has been heading for regression. I’ll touch on that more in a bit, but let’s get into the specific legs of this parlay.
I like Kevin Kiermaier to get a hit here, considering he has a good history against Max Scherzer and his arsenal. Kiermaier is first among all regulars in run value against fastballs, posting a splendid mark of 2.99. He also has three hits in 11 career at bats against Scherzer and should negotiate one here.
Then, I love Mitch Garver against the lefty Ryu. While he doesn’t have much of a track record in the batter-versus-pitcher numbers, he’s hit a remarkable .345 against southpaws this season and Ryu has begun to cough up hits in recent starts.
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Rangers vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Ryu has been pitching well since coming back from the injured list, posting a 2.65 ERA in seven starts. However, he has also been prone to the long ball, giving up four homers in his last three games. That could be a problem against a Texas lineup that we’ve established has a lot of power, especially against left-handed pitchers. In addition, this game will be played at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.
So, I have a hard time making a call here one way or another on the moneyline, but that affirms that the Over is the way to go.
I would say the Jays are my favorite pick on the moneyline here, just given Scherzer’s struggles at keeping his fastball in the yard and his reliance on strikeouts. I don’t envision Toronto giving much away at the plate, and I do think despite Ryu’s less-attractive arsenal and counting stats he’s effectively pitched to contact through seven starts.
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Trend to know
The Texas Rangers have hit the game total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 48% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Blue Jays
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Rangers vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, September 12, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest |
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (12-6, 3.91 ERA): Scherzer is coming off the worst start of his season which saw him surrender seven runs over three frames to the Houston Astros, including three home runs. Prior to that, he’d been excellent for the Rangers, with an ERA just over two in six outings.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-2, 2.65 ERA): The big lefty, now 36, will make his eighth start of the season after spending most of it on the injured list. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in his previous six, and while his strikeout numbers haven’t popped, he’s around one per inning in his last four outings.
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