The MLB kicks off a new week with a little bit of a lighter schedule, as there are just nine games on the board, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value in the baseball prop betting market.
Today we look at a pitcher prop who hates facing the Toronto Blue Jays and fade one of the worst road teams in baseball history going up against Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels.
We break down and pick these games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Monday, July 26.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 hits allowed (-150)
The Toronto Blue Jays have been a thorn in the side of Boston Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta. The right-hander has come back down to Earth after a hot start — and the Jays have been a big reason why.
The Blue Jays, of course, have one of the toughest lineups in baseball, ranking second in scoring and batting average and first in OPS and home runs. And Pivetta knows that better than most: He has surrendered 15 runs on 24 hits (including five dingers) in just 16 2-3 innings of work over three starts against Toronto this season.
It doesn’t help that Pivetta is in a slump, as the right-hander is pitching to a 5.35 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over his last seven starts.
With the Jays reading the ball well out of Pivetta’s hand this season, and the fact they have gone Over this number in each of his three starts against them this season, we like them to rack up the whacks in this one as well.
Angels -0.5 five-inning runline (+100)
It may be surprising for some of you to find out, but the Colorado Rockies are one of the best home teams in baseball this season, sporting a 33-20 record at Coors Field. But that just means they are having a historically bad season on the road — and things won’t get any easier tonight as they travel to Anaheim to take on Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels.
The Rockies are just 10-36 on the road this season and will have to win eight of their final 35 road games if they don’t want to join the 1963 New York Mets and 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates for the worst road record in baseball history.
Their home/away splits at the plate are also quite staggering. Overall, they rank 16th in scoring, 12th in batting average, and 19th in OPS. Not terrible. But on the road, they score just 2.87 runs per game and hit .204 as a team with a .588 OPS. All of those are dead last in the MLB... by a wide margin.
Tonight, those bats face Shohei Ohtani, who is pitching to a 3.21 ERA, striking out 11.7 batters per nine innings, and is limiting opponents to a .191 batting average. While the Rockies counter Ohtani with their ace in German Marquez, there is good value in the Angels to have the lead through five innings.
Luis Garcia Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130)
Rookie starter Luis Garcia has given the Houston Astros rotation a real boost this season. The 24-year-old is effectively using his fastball, cutter, and slider, resulting in him pitching to a 2.86 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season. The righty will look to keep rolling when he and the Astros visit the Seattle Mariners tonight.
The Mariners have been a surprisingly scrappy bunch this season and trail the Oakland A’s for the second AL wild-card spot by a mere 1.5 games. But Garcia may be their kryptonite, as the M’s are one of the MLB's worst when it comes to hitting right-handed pitching.
Seattle ranks 27th in OPS, 28th in scoring, and dead last in batting average when facing righties. That doesn’t bode well against a guy who is limiting opponents to a .201 batting average this season.
Garcia has also given up two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 18 starts this season, which includes five innings of three-hit, one-run ball against the Mariners back on April 29. With all that in mind, we like that trend to continue tonight in Seattle.
MLB betting card for July 26
- Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-150)
- Angels -0.5 Five-Inning Runline (+100)
- Luis Garcia Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130)
Picks made on 7/26/2021 at 11:48 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB prop picks, you could win $48.97 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.