Today’s MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions: Royals Rookie Lynch Continues To Struggle Racking Up Ks

Home offenses are the theme for today's best MLB props, as we like the Rockies to keep rolling at Coors, baseball's hottest hitter continuing to do his thing at home, and Royals rookie Daniel Lynch struggling to punch out Sox hitters in Chi Town.

Posted: Aug 5, 2021 12:20 PM ET Updated: Aug 5, 2021 12:20 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Daniel Lynch Kansas City Royals MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Thursday may normally be a lighter schedule in the MLB, as it's getaway day, but there are actually 12 games on the ledger today — giving us oodles of MLB prop bets to sort through!

We've found the best value plays for today's action, including a dominant home team continuing to roll, one of baseball's hottest hitters staying en fuego, and a top prospect having a rough go against some of baseball's best.

Get the full scoop below with our best MLB props, picks, and predictions for Thursday, August 5.  

Today’s MLB props and picks

Colorado Rockies team total Over 6 (-118)

The Colorado Rockies have, overall, been dreadful this season, but man can they hit the heck out of the ball when playing at Coors Field.

Colorado is 34-21 at home this season and ranks first in runs and batting average, plus second in OPS. They still only average 5.6 runs per game at home, but we're loving Over 6 runs today because of the favorable matchup against Cubs starter Jake Arrieta.

The 35-year-old righty's better days are certainly behind him, as the former Cy Young winner boasts a career-worst 6.20 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and has yielding 18 home runs already in just 78 1-3 innings. He's given up a long ball in six straight starts, completing five innings just twice in that span, and has surrendered a whopping 32 hits and 27 runs over his last 20 1-3 innings.

Arrieta has been bad all season long, and there's no reason to believe he won't be a punching bag again today.

Oh, and for good measure: Arrieta's lifetime ERA at Coors Field? An unsightly 10.43.

George Springer Over 1.5 total bases (-115)

It's hard to explain why... but George Springer loves batting leadoff — and also loves hitting in the Blue Jays' true home.

Toronto's big-ticket offseason acquisition barely played in the first half of the season due to injury and started to round himself into shape, but was still scuffling as he was hitting just .231 with five home runs while batting in the middle of the order. So Jays moved him back to his customary lead-off spot on July 24 and he took off, registering a hit in five of the following six games.

But then, the Blue Jays finally made their long-awaited return to the Rogers Centre... and Springer became downright scary.

Springer is hitting a ridiculous 14 for 25 (.560) with nine extra-base hits (four home runs) in six games North of the border. He's logged at least two total bases in each of those games, including 14 total bases over his last two games against inferior Cleveland pitching.

Luckily for him (and us), he gets to face another struggling starter today in rookie Triston McKenzie, who sports a 6.11 ERA on the year.

With the way Springer is swinging the bat — and MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting behind him — this is a great value for baseball's hottest hitter.

Daniel Lynch Under 3.5 strikeouts (+120)

Lynch is Kansas City's top pitching prospect but he's had a rough debut in the Majors, boasting a 6.95 ERA and 1.682 through five career starts. To be fair, however, he had three awful outings in early May and was sent back down to AAA before being recalled at the end of July.

He's made two starts since returning, shutting out the Tigers over eight innings and holding the fearsome Blue Jays offense to three runs over six innings. So his effectiveness has improved, but the one thing he isn't doing is striking batters out.

The 24-year-old southpaw has struck out a grand total of six batters through his last two games and only has 13 punchouts in 22 Major-League innings. He's not even racking up Ks in the minors, as he is barely above a strikeout per inning in AAA (62 Ks in 57 innings).

He hasn't topped more than four Ks in any of his five outings so far, and we're not expecting him to do so (or even reach that mark) tonight against the White Sox. The AL Central leaders are in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts overall, and have the third-fewest punchouts in the American League against southpaws.

The only real chance for Lynch to top tonight's 3.5-strikeout mark is by pitching six or seven innings, but Chicago also makes pitchers work: They've seen the seventh-most pitches in baseball since July 1, and Lynch neither throws a ton of strikes nor generates a lot of swing-and-miss (opponents make contact on 92.4 percent of strikes he throws).

We're expecting Lynch to have to labor through a lot of pitches early in this game — with the White Sox ending at-bats by putting the ball in play — and the rookie neither going deep into the contest nor recording four strikeouts tonight.

MLB betting card for August 5

  • Colorado Rockies team total Over 6 (-118)
  • George Springer Over 1.5 total bases (-115)
  • Daniel Lynch Under 3.5 strikeouts (+120)

Picks made on 8/5/2021 at 1:12 p.m. ET

MLB parlays

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