We've got a full day of baseball ahead of us with games starting in the early afternoon and sticking with us until deep into the night. As such, there are plenty of opportunities to find value in the player prop markets.
We're targeting a pair of All-Star sluggers who excel at racking up extra-base hits in Jose Ramirez and Freddie Freeman while also backing Padres left-hander Sean Manaea to have his strikeout pitch working against the Giants.
Here are our three favorite MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, August 10.
MLB props for August 10
Picks made on 8/10/2022 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Jose is the way
Cleveland Guardians Jose Ramirez would be in the running for the American League MVP award were it not for Aaron Judge's unbelievable season at the dish. Ramirez is tied with Rafael Devers for second in the league with 221 total bases, thanks in large part to his MLB-leading 36 doubles. In fact, only Judge and Atlanta Braves slugger Austin Riley have more extra-base hits than Ramirez's 61.
And so, the somehow underrated All-Star will dig into the batter's box against Detroit Tigers right-hander Drew Hutchison tonight and can be found at plus money to clear 1.5 total bases on the evening.
The 31-year-old Hutchison showed promise with the Toronto Blue Jays early in his career before becoming something of a journeyman. In 18 appearances (eight starts) this season, he has a 4.37 ERA to go along with an extremely low 5.66 strikeouts per nine innings.
Hutchinson simply doesn't miss bats and he serves up a ton of hard contact and barrels to opposing batters, per his Baseball Savant profile. It's kind of a miracle his ERA is as good as it is.
In a small sample size, Ramirez has gone 5-for-11 with a home run in his career vs. Hutchison, but even if they hadn't met — or he hadn't found that kind of success already — this version of Hutchison would sound the alarm bells in this matchup tonight.
While Ramirez has cooled a bit of late — though he has cleared his total bases prop in two of his last three games — Hutchison should provide the perfect antidote.
Jose Ramirez Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Fly free, Freddie
Serving as something of a counterpart to Ramirez on the National League side of things, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman is a hit machine. He leads the majors with 137 hits and ranks fifth in total bases with 222 (just one behind teammate Trea Turner).
While Minnesota Twins right-hander Sonny Gray has had a solid season, he doesn't carry a massive advantage. Gray isn't striking a lot of batters out this year (22.9% for an 8.43 K/9). Some of this can be attributed to the low velocity on his fastball.
But the curious thing about Gray is how conservatively Rocco Baldelli has deployed him. The right-hander has something of an injury history with questions about his durability — he hasn't topped 175 1-3 innings since 2015 — and as such has had a quick hook attached to him.
Gray hasn't hit the 100-pitch plateau in any of his 16 starts this season and has only thrown more than 90 three times and never in consecutive outings. He threw 96 last time out over five innings against the Blue Jays while issuing an uncharacteristically high five walks.
This all benefits Freeman in a couple of ways. First, Gray's pitch-to-contact trend could get him in trouble against the elite-hitting lefty. Secondly, the Twins bullpen can only counter Freeman with one lefty (Caleb Thielbar) so there won't be much of a handedness advantage in relief.
Besides, Freeman has still hit .295 vs. lefties this season (compared to .336 vs. right-handers) so it's not even that big of a dip in production.
Manaea mows 'em down
Sean Manaea's reputation for being unable to put batters away with a strikeout pitch is greatly exaggerated at this point in his career. For the second straight year — and third out of four — he's punched out more than a batter per inning and close to a quarter of all batters faced.
Wednesday's opponents, the San Francisco Giants, rank somewhere near the middle of the pack in terms of team strikeout percentage at 23.1. That number jumps a bit to 23.7% when lefties are on the bump.
While Manaea has hit some rough patches throughout the season, he's typically afforded some leeway from skipper Bob Melvin. Manaea averages more than 90 pitches per start, which usually allows him to go deep into games, boosting his chances at adding some extra strikeouts to his tally.
His strikeouts prop has already dropped to 4.5 at a lot of books but is still available at 5.5 at some spots as of this writing. Shop around and see if you can grab it while it still exists.
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