Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Makin' Money With McKenzie

Prop bet #1: Getting Good Miles-age

The St. Louis Cardinals send veteran Miles Mikolas to the hill today against the Cincinnati Reds. 

The Reds have been solid at the plate this year, ranking 14th in OPS, but advanced analytics suggest they're due for some major regression: Cincy is just 29th in hard-hit rate and barrel rate, while ranking dead-last in average exit velocity. 

Mikolas had a 3.29 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP in 32 starts last year and while he started this year off with a few ugly performances, he's been on fire lately. The right-hander has pitched to a 1.82 ERA in his last eight starts and allowed two or fewer runs in six of those outings. 

The Reds typically don't bat as well away from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and now they'll be playing in Mikolas' backyard at Busch Stadium — which tends to favor pitchers.

Expect another strong start from Mikolas and take the Under 2.5 on his earned runs. 

Miles Mikolas prop: Under 2.5 earned runs

Prop bet #2: Jarred back into form

Jarred Kelenic is having a breakout season with the Seattle Mariners and despite a mini-slump at the start of the month (going 1-for-17 at the dish over a five-game stretch) he has snapped out of it with three hits in his last two days.

The 23-year-old is slashing .270/.333/.502 this season, which is particularly impressive when you consider that he hits at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park half the time, but tonight Kelenic and the Mariners are on the road, facing off against the Los Angeles Angels and starter Patrick Sandoval.

Sandoval has struggled this season, pitching to a 4.14 ERA — with an expected ERA of 4.51 and an expected opponent batting average of .270 — through 11 starts. The southpaw also has a reverse platoon split, struggling against fellow lefties hitters like Kelenic, allowing them to bat .350.

Meanwhile, Kelenic has an incredible .636 slugging percentage against lefthanded pitchers and his slugging percentage rises to .555 away from home. Most books have the O/U on Kelenic's total bases set at 0.5 (with the Over juiced to about -160) which is a decent play as well, but if you can get an alternate total bases number at your book... grab it.

Jarred Kelenic prop: Total bases milestone: 2+ (+160 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Gamble on Gumby

Triston McKenzie has seen progress every year as a pro; he finished with a subpar 4.95 ERA as a rookie in 2021, as he struggled with control, yet he still held opponents to an impressive .194 batting average. Then he cut his walk rate from 11.7% to 5.9% last year, which resulted in a sizzling 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 191 1/3 innings.

There were concerns about how the 25-year-old would perform this season after recovering from a shoulder injury. However, he put those questions to rest on Sunday by allowing just one hit and racking up 10 punchouts in five innings of shutout ball against the Twins in his 2023 debut.

Today, McKenzie and the Cleveland Guardians host the Houston Astros, who are having a down year at the dish in ranking 20th in the majors in OPS (.716) — with that number dipping to .697 against righties.

Since McKenzie is still building up his arm strength, he might not pitch deep into this one, but he should be able to hold Houston Under 4.5 hits in the time he is on the mound.

Triston McKenzie prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed