Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: McClanahan Makes White Sox Look Foolish

It’s a getaway day on the diamond, and with 11 games on the board, that means there are MLB player props all day long.

Andrew Heaney should hold his own tonight against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees lineup. The White Sox used to be known for crushing lefties, but that’s not the case this year, and tonight they go against one of the best in baseball in the Rays' Shane McClanahan. And Pete Alonso should break out of his slump vs. the Nationals.

Here are my best MLB player props for Thursday, April 27.

MLB props for April 27

• Heaney Over 15.5 outs
• McClanahan Over 17.5 outs
• Alonso Over 1.5 total bases

Picks made on 4/27/2023 at 4:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Prop bet #1: Unexpectedly strong starter

We get a decent pitching matchup when Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees take on Andrew Heaney and the Texas Rangers to open a four-game set on Thursday night.

Cole has looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball through his first four starts, and he gives the Yankees the edge in this matchup. But Heaney has settled in after a rough start.

After getting tuned up for seven runs on seven hits in his first start of the season against the Baltimore Orioles, Heaney has given up just two earned runs on nine hits over his last three starts combined.

Usually you would expect a matchup against the Yankees to be a tough one. And yes, they are still hitting a fair number of home runs. But not much else. And thanks to injuries to the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson, the Yankees' lineup looks much less intimidating after their Top 4.

Overall, New York is hitting just .200 when facing left-handed pitching this season. That ranks 28th in the MLB. Their 26th-ranked OPS vs. southpaws isn’t much better.

Heaney will have a great shot to work deep into this game and go Over his outs recorded prop of 15.5.

Andrew Heaney Prop: Over 15.5 outs recorded (+105)

Prop bet #2: McClanahan stays sharp

It’s official. The Tampa Bay Rays are in a slump. They’ve been shut out in back-to-back losses, and it’s just the second time all season that the Rays have lost consecutive games, dropping their record to 20-5.

But I don’t expect this “slump” to last long. That’s because they open a series against a team in a real slump. That’s the dumpster fire that is the Chicago White Sox.

Nothing is going right for the White Sox this year. They enter this matchup at an ugly 7-18, having lost seven consecutive ball games. They can’t pitch (outside of tonight’s starter Dylan Cease), they can’t hit, and they are dealing with some key injuries, including those to Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada.

The White Sox were known as a team that would crush lefties, but that’s no longer the case. They rank 25th in batting average and 22nd in OPS when facing southpaws, and tonight they go up against one of the best in baseball in Shane McClanahan.

The Rays ace has given up just six runs over his first five starts. That’s good for a 1.86 ERA. He's limiting opponents to a .176 batting average, and ranks in the 90th percentile in strikeout rate. His last start came against this same Pale Hose squad, where he limited them to two runs on three hits while striking out 10 over six innings.

Everything is set up for McClanahan to pitch deep into another ball game. He’s pitched at least six innings in four of his first five starts. I expect him to do so again tonight.

Shane McClanahan Prop: Over 17.5 outs recorded (-135)

Prop bet #3: Polar Bear heats up

Slumps are the theme of the day. The New York Mets have dropped four in a row heading into tonight’s matchup with the Washington Nationals.

It’s not a coincidence that the Mets' slump has coincided with a four-game hitless streak for Pete Alonso. The Polar Bear was hitting .293 with a 1.047 OPS for the season prior to this little dip, and I think he gets back on track tonight.

He’ll dig in against Nationals starter Trevor Williams. The right-hander has a solid ERA, but he’s been hit hard and could be due for some regression. Despite a 3.38 ERA, his expected ERA is 5.74, and he ranks in the Bottom 11% in opponent expected slugging percentage and strikeout rate.

Alonso has also seen the ball well out of Williams’ hand. It’s not a huge sample size, but Alonso is 2-for-7 in his career against his former teammate. Those two hits are a double and a home run. And he has an expected slugging percentage of .779 against Williams.

I like Alonso to get an extra-base hit and go Over his total bases prop at nice plus money.

Pete Alonso Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+145)

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