MLB Player Props for 8-12: Best Bets for Framber Valdez, Tyler Mahle, & Marco Gonzales

Prop bet #1: Framber Valdez Over 18.5 outs 

(+155 at DraftKings)

The Tampa Bay Rays have the third-highest BABIP (.326) and strike out at the fifth-highest clip (24.6%) against left-handed pitchers this season, and they also have been on an offensive decline since the All-Star break. The Rays sport respective .279 and 25.2% marks overall, and they rank 20th in baseball with a .310 wOBA since the midseason pause. 

The unsustainably high .326 BABIP against lefties will continue to drop, and Tampa trading away lineup staples Amed Rosario, Isaac Paredes, and Randy Arozarena will help.

Enter Houston Astros lefty Framber Valdez. He’s averaged 98 pitches per start across his past five games with a sterling 2.41 ERA and 2.62 xFIP, and he’s also been a consistent innings eater. His 524 1/3 frames since the beginning of the 2022 campaign are sixth most among big-league starters, and Valdez’s 3.21 ERA and 3.22 xFIP stand as elite marks alongside his peers. 

Finally, my MLB picks also value that Valdez has recorded 19 or more outs in three of his past five starts, and there has already been a move to the Over in this prop market.

Prop bet #2: Tyler Mahle Under 4.5 strikeouts

(+120 at BetMGM)

Texas Rangers righty Tyler Mahle will be making just his second start of the season following last year’s Tommy John surgery, and he only fanned two batters while tossing 76 pitches across five innings in his 2024 debut against Houston last Tuesday. Mahle is still being stretched out, and the Boston Red Sox send out an excellent lineup against right-handed hurlers.

Boston ranks second with a .333 wOBA against righties, and while the Red Sox do have the 10th-highest strikeout percentage (23.7%) against them, they’ve also been hot out of the All-Star break with 6.05 runs per game and a third-ranked .364 wOBA. As a result, Mahle will have difficulty pitching deep enough to reach five strikeouts.

Prop bet #3: Marco Gonzales Under 16.5 outs

(-105 at BetMGM)

The San Diego Padres have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers (17.8%) and have been an offensive juggernaut out of the All-Star break with a .350 wOBA and an even lower 16.9 K%.

It puts Pittsburgh Pirates starter Marco Gonzales in a tough spot because he’s been squared up through four starts since returning from a forearm strain in mid-July. Opposing hitters have teed off on the veteran righty for a 14.1% barrel rate and 42.2% hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs, and Gonzales sports a 6.48 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, and 5.18 xFIP over the four-start stretch. He’s also only completed five innings once since returning to action.