I'm firing on all cylinders right now, going 8-1 over the last three slates I covered with daily MLB player props.
I’ll look to keep the good times going with three more plays for an enticing slate on July 21.
Best MLB player props today
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Wood o1.5 H+R+RBI (-115) -
Schwarber o1.5 TB (+115) -
Aranda o1.5 H+R+RBI (-120)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Monday, July 21
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
James Wood Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-115 at Caesars)
Brady Singer is having a fine season with the Cincinnati Reds, but his numbers are much worse against left-handed bats.
Singer has allowed a higher batting average, SLG%, and ISO. He’s also been hit much harder, conceding 1.3 homers per nine innings vs. lefties compared to just 0.6 per nine vs. righties.
James Wood should be the prime beneficiary of this matchup. The left-handed All-Star slugger leads all Nationals batters in OBP, wOBA, SLG%, and ISO against RHP.
He’s also a sleeping giant in the sense that he’s cleared his H+R+RBI line more often than not this season, but enters play having gone under in six straight games. He’s too good to stay this cold, and the matchup could be just what the doctor ordered to right the ship.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, FDSN-Ohio
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at Caesars)
To say Walker Buehler’s had a tough time vs. lefties this season would be an understatement.
Buehler has given up a .324 average and .384 wOBA against lefties, both of which rank him Bottom 3 among today’s projected starting pitchers. Enter Kyle Schwarber.
The veteran lefty leads the Phillies in ISO and SLG% against right-handed pitching, and he's been their most dangerous power threat. Schwarber can pile up the bases with just one good swing, and he should have plenty of pitches to hit against Buehler.
Not to mention, Schwarber’s 46% clear rate jumps 10% in victories. That seems noteworthy as the Phillies are one of the biggest favorites on the slate.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, NBCS-Philadelphia
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-120 at Caesars)
Let's end these MLB picks with a bang!
Jonathan Aranda has been extremely productive all season long, especially on home soil. He's hitting a ridiculous .341 in home games, a long way from his still excellent .281 average on the road. Aranda also leads all Rays batters in average, wOBA, and on-base percentage against righties.
Given the difference in home/road average, it should be no surprise Aranda has fared a lot better in the H+R+RBI market at home, clearing this line in 59% of home games compared to 48% on the road.
Although Sean Burke has performed better against lefties in terms of suppressing hits, the power numbers he’s allowed are very similar.
Aranda is more than capable of making noise against Burke. If and when he falters, Aranda can look forward to facing off against the league’s 29th-ranked bullpen by xFIP.
- Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, FDSN-Sun
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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