Coors Field usually brings us a high-scoring contest, and my MLB picks are looking to take advantage of that when the Colorado Rockies take the field at home tonight.
Check out why I’m betting on their top hitter, along with Aaron Nola and Logan Gilbert, in my three favorite MLB player props for Friday, August 16.
MLB props for August 16
- Nola Under 2.5 earned runs (-135 at DraftKings)
- Gilbert Under 5.5 hits allowed (-125 at bet365)
- Doyle Over 0.5 RBI (+155 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Aaron Nola Under 2.5 earned runs
Aaron Nola has struggled over his last three starts, pitching to a 4.86 ERA with an OBA of .348. However, those outings came against three of the best lineups in the majors, and his long-term success suggests positive regression. Keep in mind that before his mini-slump, the Philadelphia Phillies right-hander boasted a 3.38 ERA and OBA of .233 in his previous seven starts.
Today he faces off against a Washington Nationals team that sits among the three worst teams in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard hit rate. The Nats also have the seventh-highest whiff rate in the majors, and Nola ranks in the Top 15th percentile in this category, so he should be able to limit contact.
Nola also has a history of dominating the Nationals. Since the start of 2022, Nola has a 1.52 ERA in seven starts against Washington while allowing just 27 hits across 41 1/3 innings. Due to Nola's recent struggles, we're getting some lower-than-usual props numbers, so be sure to buy on the dip and grab the Under 2.5 earned runs.
Prop bet #2: Logan Gilbert Under 5.5 hits
All eyes will be on Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes when he takes on the Seattle Mariners, but let's not forget that the M's have a pretty good young starter of their own in Logan Gilbert.
The 27-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a 0.87 WHP and an OBA of .195 in 24 starts this year. He's been even better since the start of June, posting a 2.54 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP and an OBA of .182 across 12 starts.
The Buccos are 24th in the majors in batting average (.235) and 27th in OPS (.672), with those numbers dipping to .230 and .658 against righties. With Gilbert allowing fewer than 5.5 hits in eight of his last 10 starts, hammer the Under here.
Prop bet #3: Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 RBI
Sophomore Brenton Doyle has emerged as the Colorado Rockies best hitter this year, leading the club in home runs (20), RBIs (60), and OPS (.791). Playing in an extreme hitters' park also inflates his numbers at home, where he's slashed .332/.385/.573 with 35 RBI through 55 games.
Today, Doyle and the Rockies host right-hander Matt Waldron and the San Diego Padres. Waldron has been solid with a 4.00 ERA through 24 starts, but it's always a challenge to pitch at Coors Field, especially since he allows a ton of fly balls.
Doyle has strong reverse platoon splits, slugging .481 against righties, and he bats third in Colorado's lineup. That should give him opportunities to drive in leadoff man Ezequiel Tovar and No. 2 hitter Brendan Rodgers, who both bat .342 at home.
This is a five-star prop according to THE BAT X, which is projecting 0.8 RBI for Doyle.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
