I swept the board with my MLB card last night, cashing all three plays given out.
I’ll look to replicate that performance with three more MLB player props for Friday, July 11, headlined by a pair of bats squaring off on the West Coast in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Tyler Soderstrom.
Best MLB player props today
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De La Cruz o1.5 TB (-125) -
Guerrero Jr. o1.5 TB (-110) -
Soderstrom o1.5 H+R+R (-115)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Friday, July 11
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 total bases (-125 at bet365)
Elly De La Cruz is tearing the cover off the baseball right now, hitting .330 with a .420 wOBA and .985 OPS against right-handed pitching since June 1. He’s legitimately one of the hottest batters in the league.
He should be chomping at the bit for the opportunity to go up against German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies.
Marquez’ hit line sits at 5.5, a number he has gone over in nine of his last 10 starts on the road. It’s a hit parade seemingly every time Marquez takes the mound.
Backing Marquez up is a horrendous bullpen that owns a 6.24 ERA spanning the last 30 days, good for dead-last in the MLB.
Be it against Marquez, or an underwhelming cast of characters out of the ‘pen, De La Cruz will have a favorable matchup each time he steps into the box. Expect him to take advantage.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSNOH, Rockies.TV
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at BetMGM)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has multiple bases in 12 of his last 20 road dates, good for a 60% hit rate. He has shown great consistency along the way, not once going back-to-back games with fewer than two bases. I don’t think that trend will be bucked tonight against the Athletics.
Guerrero Jr. will have the luxury of playing in one of the league’s most hitter-friendly ballparks. Not only that, but the weather will be as good as it gets for offense.
Temperatures are expected to approach 100F, and the wind will be blowing out close to 10 miles per hour — dream hitting conditions.
Oh, and the matchup is pretty darn good to boot.
Luis Severino has allowed an average — yes, average — of 4.4 earned runs per start at home this year. He’s had a miserable time slowing down offenses in such a hitting-friendly environment, and that’s unlikely to change against Guerrero Jr. and the red-hot Blue Jays.
Factor in the Athletics also ranking Bottom-10 in bullpen ERA over the last month, and it’s all systems go for Vladdy.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NBCSCA
Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115 at BetMGM)
Max Scherzer is still a competent pitcher but he’s not untouchable like he once was. He has missed plenty of time with on-again, off-again hand/thumb issues and has given up plenty of damage when on the mound.
He owns a 4.77 ERA on the year and has given up 17 hits — and three homers — through just 17 innings of work.
Tyler Soderstrom is one batter who figures to give Scherzer problems. He has hit very well at home all season, especially against right-handed pitching. He has multiple H+R+R in 56% of home games vs. righties, and he’s playing some of his best ball of the season.
Soderstrom has averaged 2.7 H+R+R over his last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. He’s generated 1.7 hard hit balls per game along the way, well above his season average of 1.2.
He is seeing the ball very well right now. That should translate to success against a gettable pitcher in a hitter-friendly park.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NBCSCA
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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