Happy Friday, folks!
Despite a brutal Thursday, I am back with a trio of MLB player props — highlighted by Kyle Schwarber, Kody Clemens, and Samuel Basallo.
Find out why in my MLB picks for June 12.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Schwarber |
Over 0.5 hit | -102 |
 Kody Clemens |
Over 1.5 total bases | +119 |
 Samuel Basallo |
Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI | -113 |
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 hits (-102)
Yes, you read that correctly. Near even money for Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber to record just one hit.
KYLE. SCHWARBER.
Sure, the big fella has to deal with Milwaukee Brewers phenom Jacob Misiorowski, but at -102? This is easily the biggest misprice on the board today. Win or lose, this is the kind of bet slip you frame and hang on the wall.
Despite Misiorowski's dominance this season, Schwarber still finds himself in a great spot. He enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box, and has recorded at least one hit in 61.45% of his elite-rated games over the last three seasons. That's a sample size of nearly 250 games.
The home run leader also owns 76% arsenal coverage against the flame-throwing righty, who throws his fastball more than 60% of the time.
I think we all know what Schwarber can do to a four-seamer. This season, he owns a 1.004 OPS against the pitch while generating 57.8% hard contact. Over his last 10 games, he is still making 50% hard contact while posting a 130 wRC+ and .809 OPS.
And remember, the hit does not have to come off Misiorowski. Schwarber could cash this ticket with one swing against a reliever in his final at-bat. This is simply a number I have to bet when it is priced this poorly.
Trust the trends. Trust the big fella. Let's get sweaty.
Playable to up to -140.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BREW, NBCSP
Kody Clemens Over 1.5 total bases (+119)
Run it back!
He did not come through for us yesterday afternoon, but Minnesota Twins outfielder Kody Clemens finds himself in another great boom spot tonight.
Roger's son draws St. Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, who has poorly rated hard-contact and strikeout metrics on Batters-Box. Meanwhile, Clemens carries an elite rating.
Left-handed hitters have given the Cardinals right-hander plenty of trouble this season. Leahy owns a 7.75 xERA while allowing 60% hard contact and a 13.7% barrel rate.
Those lefties have produced a .619 xSLG and .434 xwOBA against him. Per FanGraphs, only 14% of Leahy's arsenal grades above league average. On the other side, Clemens owns an 84.2% arsenal coverage rating against Leahy's pitch mix.
Not to mention, over the last 30 right-handed pitchers Clemens has faced, he has posted a 54.2% hard hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and 66.7% elevation rate while batting .379 with an .862 SLG and 1.262 OPS.
I fully ran it back from yesterday, taking both Clemens' bases prop and home run prop this evening.
I'd play this down to even money, don't pay any juice.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, CARD
Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-113)
There is a first time for everything, and today marks the first time I have ever backed a prop on Baltimore Orioles young slugger Samuel Basallo.
It feels like a great spot to jump in, as the 21-year-old draws San Diego Padres right-hander Griffin Canning, who enters today with the fourth-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.
Canning has been tormented by left-handed bats this season, allowing a 58.65% hard contact rate and a 13.8% barrel rate. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, opponents are producing a 61% hard contact rate and a 14.6% barrel rate while posting a .376 xBA, .660 xSLG, and .396 xwOBA.
Not to mention, 52% of Canning's arsenal grades below league average, per FanGraphs. Basallo owns a 79.1% arsenal coverage rating against Canning's pitch mix, giving him a favorable matchup profile.
The Orioles' young stud has also been squaring up right-handed pitching over his last 30 plate appearances, posting a 1.036 OPS and .423 wOBA while generating a 19.05% barrel rate and 47.6% hard contact rate.
With the amount of hard contact being allowed by Canning and generated by Basallo, I love this matchup tonight. If you do not want to lay any juice, his total bases prop is a solid alternative. Playable to -120.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, SDPA
- Prop picks: 208-361-34, +0.1 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
