Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Rutschman Takes Berrios to Task

Prop bet #1: Swaggy V

It feels like Patrick Corbin is just doing this for the paycheck at this point. The Washington Nationals left-hander once again is in the conversation for the worst starter in baseball, so you know we’ve got to have a bet fading him heading into today’s matchup with the New York Mets.

Corbin is pitching to an ugly 6.19 expected ERA while surrendering a .318 opponent-expected batting average and a .510 opponent-expected slugging. All of those numbers rank in the bottom 4% among MLB pitchers.

Mark Vientos has thrived since becoming the Mets’ everyday third baseman in the middle of May. The 24-year-old is hitting .339 with a 1.045 OPS, which includes five home runs and 11 RBI. He is also mashing lefties for a .433 average and a 1.367 OPS, and while it’s a small sample size, Vientos is 2-for-3 with a double and a triple in his career vs. Corbin.

The Mets outfielder has topped 1.5 total bases eight times in his last 12 starts and our Covers Prop Projections have him at 1.9 total bases for this matchup.

Mark Vientos prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Bad Singer 

The Cleveland Guardians struck first in this three-game set, taking the opener 8-5 and I’m betting they plate some more runs when they dig into the batter’s box tonight against Kansas City Royals’ starter Brady Singer.

Although the 27-year-old right-hander is also having a breakout season, pitching to a 2.63 ERA through 11 starts, there could be a regression in Singer’s future. Singer’s expected ERA is nearly two runs higher at 4.35 and his opponent expected batting average is in the 32nd percentile.

We have begun to see the start of that, as Singer has allowed a .279 batting average and a .778 OPS over his last four starts. Meanwhile, six players in the Guardians' projected lineup have an expected batting average over .300 and an expected slugging percentage over .500 against the Royals hurler.

Singer has also given up six or more hits in two of his last three starts. Covers Prop Projections have Singer at 5.9 hits allowed, so at +115, we’re getting some nice value with the Over. 

Brady Singer prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (+115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Rooster Rampage 

The way the Baltimore Orioles have surpassed the Toronto Blue Jays as the best birds in the American League East has been stunningly fast. 

Part of the reason for that is because the Orioles’ farm system has done a much better job of pumping out position player prospects. That includes catcher Adley Rutschman, who despite being in just his third big-league season, looks like one of the best players in baseball.

The 26-year-old is following up his first All-Star season by hitting .305 with a .812 OPS, which includes 10 home runs and 40 RBI. Rutschman is currently on an eight-game hitting streak where he’s hitting .353 with a .865 OPS, and I expect him to keep that going when he faces off against Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios.

While Berrios has been one of the few bright spots for Toronto this season, he ranks in just the 29th percentile in opponent-expected batting average. All the while, Rutschman is a ridiculous 12-for-19 with three dingers and two doubles in his career vs. Berrios. That works out to a .448 xBA and an .832 xSLG.

The Orioles star catcher has gone Over 1.5 total bases four times during this hitting streak and in three of four games against the Jays this season. Our Covers Prop Projections have Rutschman at 1.8 total bases, so with a price tag of +130, I’ll happily back the Over in this matchup.

Adley Rutschman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)