The Los Angeles Dodgers knocked around Pittsburgh Pirate ace Mitch Keller last night and now get to rough up young right-hander Luis Ortiz, who is coming off a zero-strikeout performance vs. the Padres in his last outing.
With the top of the Dodgers order back to full health and Ortiz projecting for Under 13 outs, should bettors be double-dipping on the Pittsburgh starter’s Unders today in the nightcap, including his modest strikeout total of 3.5?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Pirates vs. Dodgers for Tuesday, July 4.
Pirates vs Dodgers odds
Pirates vs Dodgers predictions
Despite some modest prop totals, Pittsburgh right-hander Luis Ortiz neither projects to get deep tonight nor to strike out many LA batters.
He currently has an out total of 14.5 paying plus money for the Under while his strikeouts have moved from 4.5 to 3.5, though are still showing value to the Under at plus money.
Ortiz has a 31:25 K/BB rate over 50 1/3 innings of work with Pittsburgh this year and is coming off a start where he had just three swinging strikes on 69 pitches and recorded zero punchouts vs. the Padres. He was barely an 8.00 K/9 pitcher at Triple-A and faces a team that strikes out at a neutral rate on the season.
The pitching conditions will not favor Ortiz either, as Dodgers Stadium will be in the mid-70s with a 9-mph wind blowing straight out.
It’s a full fade on Ortiz and I’m doing a half unit on his Under 14.5 outs at +115 (DraftKings) and another half unit on his Under 3.5 Ks at +105 (Betway/DK). THE BAT is projecting just 12.8 outs and 2.92 strikeouts. A hat-tip to those who got to his Under 4.5 strikeouts early this morning as those bettors are sitting with solid CLV.
My best bet: Luis Ortiz Under 14.5 outs (+115 at DraftKings) and Under 3.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
*0.5 units per bet
Pirates vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Luis Ortiz Under 3.5 strikeouts (-115)
Ortiz Under 14.5 outs recorded (+115)
Will Smith Over 0.5 home runs (+625)
It's a straight fade on Ortiz, who is projected to have a rough outing and not even get 3.0 strikeouts or 13 outs, per THE BAT. It's a tough matchup in a hitter's environment and Ortiz had just three swings-and-misses last game over 69 pitches and recorded zero punchouts.
Will Smith is showing the best +EV for home run props in the game at his +625 odds. THE BAT is projecting 0.25 for the No. 3 hitter, who has a .885 OPS and 12 home runs over 218 at-bats with some of the best insulation in the lineup. Ortiz has a hefty 15.4% HR/FB rate while the Pittsburgh bullpen ranks in the middle of the league in HR/FB%.
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Pirates vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers closed as a -170 home favorite in a pitching matchup (Keller vs. Grove) that favored the visitors significantly. Now with a starting pitching matchup that is more in LA's favor, the Dodgers have gone from -225 to -250 since opening.
It’s a short price for LA, who has frustrated bettors this year with a -8.3-unit loss on straight ML bets. But bettors know if you want the Dodgers, you’re going to have to pay the tax, which is something I’m usually not interested in doing but considering the projections on Luis Ortiz, it might be time to look at the Run Line.
THE BAT has the Pittsburgh starter going just 12.8 outs with 3.33 earned runs allowed. That means the Dodgers have a good chance at digging into this Pittsburgh bullpen early which is bad news for the Pirates as they have a Bottom-10 pen in terms of FIP, ERA, and WAR. The B bullpen is not pretty and is what bettors might see tonight if Ortiz exits early.
Cutting into that projected LA lead won't be easy as Pittsburgh’s Bottom-10 offense hits bombs at one of the lowest rates in baseball and faces a solid pitching prospect in Emmet Sheehan, who has held his own at the big-league level despite not missing a ton of bats.
The LA right-hander had a 14.85 K/9 at Double-A this year but has just 12 punchouts through 17 innings with the big club over three starts. Those Ks will come and could today with THE BAT projecting 5.71 Ks.
The total opened at 9 and hit 9.5 this morning. Bettors are expecting runs and those are coming from the home side who are -120 on the Run Line. I prefer not to take home teams on the RL, but with the projections so low on Ortiz, this LA offense should have ample opportunity to stack runs. I’m leaning on LAD -1.5 at -120.
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Trend to know
The Pirates are 17-47 in the last 64 meetings in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Dodgers
Pirates vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T Pittsburgh, SportsNet Los Angeles |
Starting pitchers
Luis Ortiz (2-3, 4.11 ERA): Ortiz is a young pitcher with some upside but has a tough start tonight at Dodger Stadium. He will be making his 10th start of the season and he carries a 31:25 K/BB rate over 50 1/3 innings of work with eight homers allowed. He’s completed more than 16 outs just once this year and averages 81 pitches per start. The Pirates are 4-6 when he pitches and THE BAT projects 77 pitches, 12.8 outs, 2.92 strikeouts, and 3.33 earned runs.
Emmet Sheehan (2-0, 2.65 ERA): The rookie right-hander will be making his fourth big-league start and has held his own with a 12:4 K/BB rate over 17 innings and has gone at least 15 outs and 87 pitches in his trio of starts. He touches the high-90s with his fastball and MLB hitters have a .172 BA against him. LA is 2-1 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 86 pitches, 15.2 outs, 5.71 strikeouts, and 2.43 earned runs.
