The Philadelphia Phillies will try to keep up their winning ways against the top team in the American League as they visit the Tampa Bay Rays for the second game of three-game series on Wednesday night.
The Phillies (45-39) opened the series with a 3-1 win on Tuesday behind a strong outing from Aaron Nola. Surprisingly, Tampa Bay (57-31) has now dropped three straight, though it still holds a six-game lead in the AL East.
Philadelphia has now won 10 straight games on the road, while Tampa Bay appears to be reeling a bit. We’ll discuss the MLB odds and whether those trends will continue tonight in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Rays on July 5.
Looking for today's game? Check out our Phillies vs. Rays picks for Thursday, July 6.
Phillies vs Rays odds
Phillies vs Rays predictions
The Phillies are in the midst of an incredible road winning streak, but that’s not the only reason to be high on the team. Philadelphia has won 13 of its last 18 games overall, and is currently in possession of the final wild card spot in the National League — albeit only by percentage points over the San Francisco Giants and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Over the last 23 games, the Phillies are averaging 5.17 run, a significant increase over the 4.52 runs they’ve averaged all season long. The pitching has improved as well, holding opponents to just 3.52 runs per game on a 3.11 ERA. In that span, Philadelphia is 16-7.
I can’t deny that the Rays have been one of the top teams all season long, ranking among the best in the majors in virtually every offensive and pitching category. But right now, things aren’t going great for Tampa Bay. They’ve lost nine of their last 15 games, and the once seemingly unbeatable squad now looks vulnerable, even when playing at home.
Today’s pitching matchup also favors the Phillies. Taijuan Walker will take the mound for Philadelphia to make his 18th start of the year. While he’s been solid for the season, he had a great June, going 5-1 with a 1.50 ERA while putting up a 0.889 WHIP. For what it’s worth, he’s also picked up wins in each of his last five starts.
The Tampa Bay lineup is never easy to attack, but there are some signs that Walker could be headed for success tonight. The Rays have struggled to generate as much offense as usual lately, hitting to just a .727 OPS over their last 25 games. They’re also a better offensive team against lefthanded pitching, with righties holding them 29 points lower in OPS and 20 points lower on batting average when compared to southpaws.
The Rays are looking at throwing a bullpen game today. Zack Littell will serve as an opener, with Yonny Chirinos expected to get most of the innings. Regardless of how they line up their pitching, this will be a tough task for Tampa Bay’s staff against a strong Phillies lineup that has been rolling over the past month.
With everything lining up in favor of the Phillies, it’s almost surprising to see them as a slight underdog in this game. I’m picking Philadelphia to win outright, and I’m happy to take a small plus number on the moneyline.
My best bet: Phillies moneyline (+105 at WynnBET)
Phillies vs Rays same-game parlay
Phillies moneyline
Taijuan Walker 4+ Strikeouts
First Inning Runs Over 0.5
I’m rolling with the Phillies to win outright tonight, and that makes up the basis of this same-game parlay. With Philadelphia as a slight underdog, that allows us to build a SGP with value without adding anything crazy into our bet.
Going along with the Phillies to win, I’m also taking Walker to record at least four strikeouts tonight. Walker has found his groove on the mound over the last month, and that includes figuring out how to finish hitters. He’s struck out at least five hitters in each of his last five starts, a trend that should continue in tonight’s game.
Finally, I’m adding a bet on a run to be scored in the first inning of tonight’s matchup. We know that both teams can hit the ball well, and the Phillies won’t be afraid of facing Littell in the first inning. With the top of each lineup possessing plenty of scoring potential, adding a bet on a first-inning run to our SGP seems like an easy choice.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Phillies vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Tampa Bay opened tonight’s game as a -125 pick on the moneyline. The line has tightened since then, with the Rays now only pulling -120 at most sites, and -115 available from some books. The Phillies are +100 or better at most sites, with +105 being the best number I’ve seen on the market.
Despite their recent struggles, the Rays have treated bettors well overall this season. A hot start helped Tampa Bay get way up on the moneyline, and they’ve still won over 14 units for bettors this year. The Phillies haven’t quite been up to par, losing three units on the season.
As I said in my best bet section, I really like the Phillies here. Walker has been outstanding over the past month, the Philadelphia bats are hot, and Tampa Bay can’t seem to find what propelled it through the first couple months of the season. I’m backing the Phillies straight up on the moneyline.
Tonight’s total opened at nine runs, and that remains the consensus Over/Under. However, sportsbooks are clearly expecting a lot of scoring, as you can get +100 on the Under, with the best Over line available being -110.
These teams have trended in opposite directions on the total this year. The Over is 49-35 for Tampa Bay, while the Under has gone 45-31 in Phillies games.
With Walker on the mound and pitching so well, it may be tempting to hit the Under at even money tonight. However, these are two teams that regularly score a lot of runs. The Rays have done it all year long, and the Phillies have joined in the scoring party over the past month.
With Tampa Bay relying on a bullpen game, there’s definitely the potential for Philadelphia to put up some crooked numbers as well. I’m staying away from the total tonight.
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Trend to know
The Phillies are 20-7 overall in their last 27 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Rays
Phillies vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, July 5, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (9-3, 3.93 ERA): Walker got off to a slow start for the Phillies this year, but he has turned it on over the past month. The Phillies have won seven of the last eight games he has started, including five in a row, with Walker picking up the win in each of those games. In his last five starts, no team has touched up Walker for more than one run. That includes his most recent outing, in which he allowed one run on six hits over six innings against the Chicago Cubs on June 29.
Zack Littell (0-1, 5.28 ERA): Littell has thrown just 15.1 innings this year for the Rays and the Boston Red Sox, working primarily out of the bullpen. However, he has served as an opener once before for Tampa Bay, allowing just one hit over two innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 29. While Littell has shown strikeout stuff, he’ll need to improve on his 1.435 WHIP and the 1.8 home runs he’s allowing per nine innings to find consistent success in the majors.
