Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

Arizona has the starting pitcher advantage in this afternoon's affair vs. San Diego, which will ensure them a lead after five frames.

JD Yonke - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Betting Analyst
Jun 15, 2025 • 10:49 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Merrill Kelly Arizona Diamondbacks MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Kelly deals to the plate.

The San Diego Padres aim to break a three-game losing streak as they visit the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday at Chase Field. 

A win by the home team would give Arizona a sweep and a six-game winning streak, and I am backing them to stay hot in the desert in my Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, June 15.

Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction

My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet: Diamondbacks first five -0.5 (+105 at Caesars)

I’m backing the team in better form both at the plate and on the mound — give me the Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 in the first five innings for slight plus money.

Merrill Kelly has been terrific, holding opponents scoreless across his last two starts (13 frames), striking out 15 along the way while surrendering just five hits and three walks. The veteran hurler has been remarkably effective at home, boasting a 2.59 ERA. 

His pitching counterpart will be Nick Pivetta for the San Diego Padres

Pivetta has been servicable overall but has had issues on the road (4.94 ERA). That makes sense considering he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (33.2% groundball rate) who routinely gets hit hard (11.9% barrel rate) but is usually bailed out in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. 

Arizona is a tough out, sporting a 142 wRC+ and .380 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 15 days. 

San Diego has a ton of talent in the lineup, but you wouldn’t know that just by looking at their recent statistical results. The Padres rank 23rd in wRC+ (91) and 24th in wOBA (.297) against righties in the last 15 days. 

Better lineup lately, more bankable starting pitcher — hence the play on the home team. But why in the first five innings?

Arizona’s arm barn has been an unmitigated disaster (5.14 ERA and 1.45 WHIP). You can’t trust them to hold a lead, but Kelly is usually good for five innings, recording 15+ outs in 12 consecutive starts. 

The Diamondbacks have been a good bet in the first five innings, cashing the moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (20% ROI) and the run line in 32 of their last 49 games (23% ROI). 

Caesars QuickPick: Our Padres vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)

Diamondbacks first five -0.5

Merrill Kelly 5+ strikeouts

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases

One reason Arizona has been hitting righties so well is the stellar play of Corbin Carroll. The young outfielder is slashing .265/.348/.643 against RHP and is typically very effective at home (.928 OPS). 

Kelly isn’t known as a strikeout virtuoso, but he’s changing the narrative with 6+ Ks in each of his last six starts (7.7 average). He’s generating a ton of misses lately with a whiff rate of at least 28% in five straight outings. 

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Padres vs Diamondbacks odds

Padres vs Diamondbacks live odds

Padres vs Diamondbacks opening odds

  • Moneyline: San Diego +110 | Arizona -130
  • Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-190) | Arizona -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of Caesars.

Padres vs Diamondbacks trend

The Diamondbacks have hit their first five innings run line in 32 of their last 49 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info

Location Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date Sunday, 6-15-2025
First pitch 4:10 p.m. ET
TV PADRES.tv, DBACKS.tv
Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta
(6-2, 3.48 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly
(6-2, 3.18 ERA)

Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

Padres vs Diamondbacks weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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