The San Diego Padres aim to break a three-game losing streak as they visit the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday at Chase Field.
A win by the home team would give Arizona a sweep and a six-game winning streak, and I am backing them to stay hot in the desert in my Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, June 15.
Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet: Diamondbacks first five -0.5 (+105 at Caesars)
I’m backing the team in better form both at the plate and on the mound — give me the Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 in the first five innings for slight plus money.
Merrill Kelly has been terrific, holding opponents scoreless across his last two starts (13 frames), striking out 15 along the way while surrendering just five hits and three walks. The veteran hurler has been remarkably effective at home, boasting a 2.59 ERA.
His pitching counterpart will be Nick Pivetta for the San Diego Padres.
Pivetta has been servicable overall but has had issues on the road (4.94 ERA). That makes sense considering he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (33.2% groundball rate) who routinely gets hit hard (11.9% barrel rate) but is usually bailed out in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park.
Arizona is a tough out, sporting a 142 wRC+ and .380 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 15 days.
San Diego has a ton of talent in the lineup, but you wouldn’t know that just by looking at their recent statistical results. The Padres rank 23rd in wRC+ (91) and 24th in wOBA (.297) against righties in the last 15 days.
Better lineup lately, more bankable starting pitcher — hence the play on the home team. But why in the first five innings?
Arizona’s arm barn has been an unmitigated disaster (5.14 ERA and 1.45 WHIP). You can’t trust them to hold a lead, but Kelly is usually good for five innings, recording 15+ outs in 12 consecutive starts.
The Diamondbacks have been a good bet in the first five innings, cashing the moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (20% ROI) and the run line in 32 of their last 49 games (23% ROI).
Caesars QuickPick: Our Padres vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks first five -0.5
Merrill Kelly 5+ strikeouts
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases
One reason Arizona has been hitting righties so well is the stellar play of Corbin Carroll. The young outfielder is slashing .265/.348/.643 against RHP and is typically very effective at home (.928 OPS).
Kelly isn’t known as a strikeout virtuoso, but he’s changing the narrative with 6+ Ks in each of his last six starts (7.7 average). He’s generating a ton of misses lately with a whiff rate of at least 28% in five straight outings.
Double your winnings for 10 separate bets at Caesars
Sign up for a Caesars account — using our exclusive promo code BASEBALLDYW — and get 10x profit boost tokens worth 100% each!
Register now to collect your Double your winning tokens, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars Sportsbook review.
Padres vs Diamondbacks odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks live odds
Padres vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +110 | Arizona -130
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-190) | Arizona -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Padres vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks have hit their first five innings run line in 32 of their last 49 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, 6-15-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | PADRES.tv, DBACKS.tv |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (6-2, 3.48 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (6-2, 3.18 ERA) |
Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Padres vs Diamondbacks weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
