The Los Angeles Dodgers (47-30) have won six of their last seven games and look to stay hot on Saturday against the visiting Washington Nationals (31-45).
Washington starter Jake Irvin has worrisome splits, setting the stage for a successful day at the office for L.A.’s left-handed hitters. See why I’m honing in on Freddie Freeman’s total bases prop with my Nationals vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, June 21.
Nationals vs Dodgers prediction
My Nationals vs Dodgers best bet: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at Caesars)
Jake Irvin has been a valuable innings-eater for the Washington Nationals with a 4.23 ERA across 15 starts.
His xERA of 5.24 is a full run higher than his actual ERA, however, indicating that regression is on the way in a hurry.
The former Oklahoma Sooner has a .255 BABIP that’s simply unsustainable, considering he allows a lot of hard contact (sixth percentile barrel rate, 17th percentile hard-hit rate).
He doesn’t strike batters out (15.7% K rate) and rarely issues free passes either (6.9% walk rate), meaning opposing teams put a fair amount of balls in play against him. The big righty’s .281 xBA paints the picture that the deflated BABIP won’t last forever.
Irvin is susceptible to left-handed batters, allowing them to slash .265/.319/.500 and saddling him with a 5.33 FIP.
Also worrisome for this matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers is that he’s been beatable on the road (4.97 ERA).
Enter Freddie Freeman.
L.A.’s first baseman received a day off for Friday’s series opener as manager Dave Roberts claimed the veteran has been dealing with ankle and right quad injuries.
They don’t sound serious, and the day off should do him wonders as he returns for a favorable matchup.
Freeman destroys right-handed pitchers (177 wRC+) and typically performs well at home (170 wRC+). He has favorable results against both curves and changeups, which Irvin mixes in with his fastball against lefties.
The 35-year-old has been in a lull at the plate, but that just means it’s time to buy low.
The books have priced Shohei Ohtani’s total bases prop up to 2.5, but Freeman also mashed RHP and his total bases prop of 1.5 can be had for -115 odds. That’s where the value is.
Nationals vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers First Five Innings -0.5
Shohei Ohtani 2+ hits
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Dustin May gets the nod for the Dodgers and has to like his chances of a successful day at the office against a Nationals lineup with a 73 wRC+ (28th), and a .273 wOBA (also 28th) against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days. This sets up well for L.A. to grab a lead in the first five innings of the game.
Once things make it to the bullpen — which could be early, in Irvin’s case — Washington won’t be out of trouble just yet. Their relief pitchers have combined for a 5.61 FIP in the month of June, which is the worst number in the MLB by a wide margin.
Shohei Ohtani has a favorable matchup against both Irvin and the beleaguered bullpen behind him.
Nationals vs Dodgers odds
Nationals vs Dodgers live odds
Nationals vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: Washington +220 | Los Angeles -270
- Run line: Washington +1.5 (+110) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Nationals vs Dodgers trend
The Nationals have only hit their First Five Innings moneyline in 18 of their last 64 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Nationals vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 6-21-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, SportsNet LA |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Jake Irvin (5-3, 4.23 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Dustin May (4-4, 4.46 ERA) |
Nationals vs Dodgers latest injuries
Nationals vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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