Friday Jr. has arrived, and we just have seven games to sink our teeth into this evening.
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for today's small slate, featuring some underdogs in great spots on Thursday, Aug. 27.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out our MLB picks to see where our experts see value!
MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 27
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 COLvs  WSH |
+119 |
 BALvs  STL |
-121 |
 HOUvs  NYY |
+146 |
 KCvs  TOR |
-107 |
 MILvs  NYM |
-219 |
 LADvs  ATL |
+109 |
 AZvs  SF |
-103 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Aug. 27.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 27
Rockies vs Nationals: Rockies (+109)
Rockies win probability: 44%
It is basically Friday, so why not kick the weekend off early by taking an underdog with some bite?
The Rockies have had a strong week, with Hunter Goodman going back-to-back games with a home run.
Offensively, they sport a .334 wOBA, .749 OPS and 103 wRC+ over their last six games. During that stretch, Washington has just an 82 wRC+, .126 ISO, and a hard-hit rate just under 30%.
Both starters on the mound in this matchup have been pretty brutal, to say the least. Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin has been allowing a ton of hard-hit balls all season long while holding a 5.70 ERA.
Gabriel Hughes has similar numbers, but at least he limits hard-hit and barreled balls, which is why the Rockies (+109) are the look here.
Orioles vs Cardinals: Orioles (-121)
Cardinals win probability: 53%
Let's keep this one nice and sweet. If you have not been paying attention, Pete Alonso and the Baltimore Orioles have been on a heater this week — scoring 21 runs over the past two nights.
Sure, they won 8-7 last night, but I would not even put you in front of this freight train.
Trevor Rogers has had his ups and downs this season, and his most recent outings have been a little queasy, as he owns a 4.04 xERA over his last three starts. However, over his last five, he has a 2.85 xERA and a 3.55 xERA overall on the road this season.
The Cardinals are far better against southpaws, but there is a more attractive bird playing today.
Astros vs Yankees: Astros (+146)
Astros win probability: 41%
There is no interest in paying above $1.60 for Gerrit Cole and the Yankees to secure a win here.
Astros right-hander Hayden Wesneski has strong underlying metrics pointing to improvement, including a 2.78 xERA, 40% hard-hit rate, and 8.89% barrel rate over his last three starts.
This is also a strong matchup for Yordan Alvarez if Cole actually throws to him and does not walk the Astros' biggest offensive threat.
Either way, at nearly +150, it is worth the risk.
Royals vs Blue Jays: Royals (-107)
Royals win probability: 52%
Tears of joy are currently falling, as we get to take advantage of Blue Jays right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who has been god-awful all season long.
To give the man some credit, he does own a 3.82 xERA across his last three starts. However, during that stretch, he has a staggering 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
The Royals' lineup is filled with left-handed power, and with Arrighetti owning a 13.50 ERA, 9.10 xERA, and 8.14 xFIP against the last 30 lefties he has faced, it is the Royals today.
Brewers vs Mets: Brewers (-219)
Brewers win probability: 66%
Jacob Misiorowski. Is that enough? No?
Sean Manaea. Still need more? Fine.
The Mets and Brewers' bats have racked up similar numbers over the last week, but their pitchers are in different galaxies at the moment. If you live under a rock, the Brewers' right-hander has been wheeling and dealing all summer long.
The Mets' seasoned left-hander currently holds a 5.29 xERA over his last five starts while allowing nearly a 50% hard-hit rate and nearly a 20% barrel rate to opposing hitters. Take the run line.
For more plays on this game, check out our Brewers vs. Mets predictions.
Dodgers vs Braves: Dodgers (+109)
Dodgers win probability: 48%
Game of the night, as 2025 World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Braves southpaw Chris Sale take the mound this evening.
Some may argue the books know something, but football is on; they are asleep. The Braves have had a strong week against the Dodgers. However, you do not get too many games where the Dodgers are underdogs. Take the dog.
Diamondbacks vs Giants: Giants (-103)
Giants win probability: 50%
Both Jose Cabrera and Landon Roupp have been pretty untrustworthy this season, but with how hot the Giants have been over the last week, snagging them at $1.03 to secure the win this evening feels worth backing.
Over their last six games, the team in the Bay has a 129 wRC+, .352 wOBA, and .802 OPS while generating over a 47% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate.
Giants.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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