Thursday's full MLB schedule offers no shortage of betting opportunities, but not every favorite is worth backing.
After breaking down every matchup, I've narrowed the slate to my favorite MLB picks for July 9, targeting teams with the strongest pitching edges, matchup advantages, and paths to victory.
Read on for my top MLB moneyline picks.
MLB moneyline picks for July 9
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Bravesvs  Pirates |
+108 |
 Royalsvs  Mets |
+130 |
 Yankeesvs  Rays |
+144 |
 Guardiansvs  Twins |
-120 |
 Red Soxvs  White Sox |
-108 |
 Cubsvs  Orioles |
-122 |
 Athleticsvs  Tigers |
-125 |
 Marinersvs  Marlins |
-127 |
 Philliesvs  Reds |
-150 |
 Brewersvs  Cardinals |
-125 |
 Angelsvs  Rangers |
-130 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Padres |
-115 |
 Rockiesvs  Giants |
+125 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-9.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 9
Braves vs Pirates: Pirates (+111)
Pirates win probability: 48%
Both pitchers in this matchup have struggled mightily over their last few outings, but Bryce Elder has been far worse. Across his last five starts, he owns an 8.10 ERA and 1.61 WHIP while allowing a 40% hard hit rate.
The Pirates' offense has been scorching over the last three weeks, and they've also shown improved plate discipline, lowering their strikeout rate from 24% to 21% over their last six games.
With the way this offense is swinging the bats, it's tough to pass up the Pirates as an underdog.
Royals vs Mets: Royals (+130)
Royals win probability: 44%
Sean Manaea has struggled to a 5.16 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season. On the other side, Royals right hander Michael Wacha has been nails over his last five starts, posting a 3.22 xERA and 1.22 WHIP.
Kansas City's offense has also started to heat up, producing a .180 ISO, .372 wOBA, and 142 wRC+ over its last six games.
Should Sean Manaea really be a -133 favorite here? Give me the Royals.
Yankees vs Rays: Yankees (+147)
Yankees win probability: 40%
Purely from a value standpoint.
The Rays' offense has been ice cold, posting an 86 wRC+, .646 OPS, and .287 wOBA over their last six games. The Yankees haven't been much better overall, but they are still generating a 46.5% hard hit rate, a 9.3% barrel rate, and a .170 ISO as a team.
At +147, I think there's enough value to take a stab on the Yankees as an underdog.
Guardians vs Twins: Guardians (-117)
Guardians win probability: 55%
Even with the Guardians' offense being frozen solid for much of the season, I think Bailey Ober helps wake it up tonight.
The Twins right-hander has been shelled over his last three starts, posting an 8.59 ERA, 8.23 xERA, and 1.91 WHIP. Cleveland has also shown signs of life at the plate over its last six games, producing a 106 wRC+, .170 ISO, and .722 OPS.
Gavin Williams has been very solid all season, and I think the Guardians are the better side this afternoon.
Red Sox vs White Sox: White Sox (-108)
White Sox win probability: 52%
The White Sox offense has gone cold, but Anthony Kay has been very solid in his recent outings. Over his last three starts, he owns a 2.92 xERA and 1.17 WHIP while doing an excellent job limiting hard contact.
Needing to avoid the sweep, I think the South Siders come through this afternoon.
Cubs vs Orioles: Orioles (-122)
Orioles win probability: 55%
David Peterson. Next question.
The Cubs left hander has been a disaster over his last five starts, posting an 11.25 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Meanwhile, Trevor Rogers has turned things around after a shaky start to the 2026 season, recording a 1.80 ERA across his last five outings.
It has to be the Orioles for me here, based solely on Peterson's recent struggles.
Athletics vs Tigers: Tigers (-125)
Tigers win probability: 56%
I'm leaning into the Athletics' recent cold streak and backing the Tigers here.
The city-less Athletics have Jack Perkins on the bump, and based on his recent numbers, he might as well own a Perkins. Over his last five starts, he's posted a 7.54 ERA, 4.19 xERA, and 1.68 WHIP while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate.
Detroit's offense has remained productive over its last 21 games, posting a 108 wRC+, .322 wOBA, and .176 ISO. I like the hometown team in this spot once again.
Mariners vs Marlins: Mariners (-127)
Mariners win probability: 56%
You'd think with the name Janson Junk, he'd be one of the most lethal pitchers in the league. Instead, he enters this matchup with a 7.00 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his last five outings.
On the other side, Mariners starter Bryce Miller has been pure nails this season, posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.67 WHIP.
Similar to my thoughts on the Guardians, I think Junk's recent struggles are enough to snap Seattle's offensive cold streak.
Phillies vs Reds: Phillies (-150)
Phillies win probability: 60%
After the Reds put up nearly two touchdowns last night, I like the Phillies to bounce back in this spot.
Jesus Luzardo gets the ball for Philadelphia, and he's been solid in his recent starts. On the other side, the Reds have been one of the more inconsistent offenses in baseball, making this a great spot to back the Phillies this evening.
Brewers vs Cardinals: Brewers (-125)
Brewers win probability: 56%
I mean, how can I back the Cardinals with the way they've gone cold over their last 12 games? Meanwhile, the Brewers have posted a 112 wRC+, .333 wOBA, and .161 ISO during that same stretch.
Right-hander Logan Henderson has also been lights-out over his last three starts, and I expect that to continue against a Cardinals offense that has struggled to produce.
Angels vs Rangers: Rangers (-130)
Rangers win probability: 56%
With how well Nathan Eovaldi has been pitching, how could I fade him against this Angels team?
Sure, Los Angeles had a great offensive performance last night, but you could make the argument MacKenzie Gore should have finished with 10+ strikeouts as well.
Eovaldi has been dominant in his last three starts, posting a 2.15 xERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 36.99% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the Angels have struggled to make consistent contact, striking out at a 27.2% clip with a .061 ISO over their last six games.
I have no interest in fading Eovaldi in this spot.
Diamondbacks vs Padres: Padres (-115)
Padres win probability: 54%
Death. Taxes. Fade the Diamondbacks starters.
Merrill Kelly takes the bump this evening, and he's been getting crushed in his recent outings, posting a 5.72 ERA, 6.55 xERA, and 1.69 WHIP over his last five starts. Sure, Griffin Canning hasn't been much better, but Kelly has been a punching bag.
Neither offense has been anything special over the last six games, but I have zero respect for this Diamondbacks pitching staff.
Rockies vs Giants: Rockies (+125)
Rockies win probability: 44%
Yes, the Rockies, again.
For as bad as this team has been, I still think there is plenty of upside with them. The offense has been playing extremely well lately, if only the pitching could find a way to hold opponents down. That is exactly why I think Ryan Feltner is the guy to help do that this evening.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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