A fresh week of Major League Baseball is loaded with plenty of opportunities to keep things green, is in front of us, with eight MLB contests to keep us busy on this fine Monday.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for tonight’s MLB slate.
MLB moneyline picks for July 6
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Philliesvs  Royals |
-199 |
 Yankeesvs  Rays |
-108 |
 Astrosvs  Nationals |
+108 |
 Metsvs  Braves |
-120 |
 Brewersvs  Cardinals |
-111 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Padres |
-106 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Giants |
+102 |
 Rockiesvs  Dodgers |
+203 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-6.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 6
Phillies vs Royals: Phillies (-199)
Phillies win probability: 66%
It is hard to justify laying nearly 2/1 odds, but aside from Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone, the Kansas City Royals' lineup has been lifeless. Over their last 12 games, they own a 71 wRC+, .269 wOBA, and .608 OPS. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies send their ace to the mound and continue to swing the bats well. Lay the run line.
Yankees vs Rays: Rays (-108)
Rays win probability: 52%
I do not give a single hoot that Cam Schlittler is on the mound tonight for the New York Yankees. Their offense owns a 49 wRC+ over its last 12 games. Forty-nine.
There is no more lifeless offense in baseball right now than the Yankees'.
This could end up being one of my biggest misreads; it certainly would not be the first. But the Tampa Bay Rays are one of baseball's hottest offenses, and the -108 odds feel like an absolute steal.
Astros vs Nationals: Astros (+108)
Astros win probability: 48%
This sets up as a battle between two very mediocre starting pitchers in Mike Burrows and Miles Mikolas. Of the two, Mikolas has been the worse arm, both on the season and over his last three starts.
The Washington Nationals' offense has been humming lately, but the Houston Astros have been swinging it well too. When both starters are this shaky, I will gladly take the plus money with the better value.
Mets vs Braves: Braves (-120)
Braves win probability: 55%
They are finally awake. The Atlanta Braves are finally turning things around.
Now they draw a struggling Freddy Peralta, who owns a 10.95 ERA over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Atlanta's offense has posted a 111 wRC+, .329 wOBA, and .743 OPS over its last six games. Take the Braves to beat the New York Mets.
Brewers vs Cardinals: Brewers (-111)
Brewers win probability: 52%
Is there a world where Dustin May holds it down for 5-plus innings against the St. Louis Cardinals? Sure. But we do not live in that world.
May owns an 8.49 ERA over his last three starts and a 5.40 ERA across his last five.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Shane Drohan has been nails over his last five outings, and Milwaukee's offense has been right there with him, posting a 132 wRC+, .362 wOBA, and .819 OPS.
Brew Crew!
Diamondbacks vs Padres: Padres (-106)
Padres win probability: 52%
The Arizona Diamondbacks' offense is still frozen solid, posting an 82 wRC+, .292 wOBA, and .652 OPS over its last 12 games. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have been humming, posting a 130 wRC+, .354 wOBA, and .806 OPS over their last six games.
With Brandon Pfaadt on the mound for Arizona, this is a great spot for the Padres to feast.
Blue Jays vs Giants: Giants (+102)
Giants win probability: 50%
Yet another frozen offense that needs to be faded. The Toronto Blue Jays have gone ice cold across the board, posting just a 48 wRC+, .237 wOBA, and .522 OPS over their last six games.
Kevin Gausman is on the mound, and he owns a 9.00 ERA over his last three outings. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants have been seeing the ball extremely well over the last week.
Give me the plus money.
Rockies vs Dodgers: Rockies (+203)
Rockies win probability: 33%
Chase the value!!!!
The Colorado Rockies' offense has caught fire over the last two weeks, so getting them at better than 2/1 feels like a fun sprinkle. The Los Angeles Dodgers send left-hander Eric Lauer to the mound, and he owns a 5.63 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, the Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland.
It will be sweaty, but I think chasing the value on the Rockies is worth the sprinkle.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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