MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Friday, July 17

After a one-game appetizer on Thursday, we've got a (mostly) full slate of Major League Baseball to kick off the season's home stretch.

Below, I break down my MLB picks and moneyline predictions for every game on the schedule. However, keep an eye on the forecast, as it wouldn't be surprising if we get a couple of cancellations due to poor air quality stemming from Canadian wildfires.

Still, let's dive in with our full MLB moneyline predictions for Friday, July 17.

MLB moneyline picks for July 17

Matchup	Pick
Rays vs Red Sox	+117
Dodgers vs Yankees	+100
Pirates vs Guardians	-117
Rangers vs Braves	-194
White Sox vs Blue Jays	+122
Marlins vs Brewers	-144
Twins vs Cubs	+127
Orioles vs Astros	-104
Padres vs Royals	-108
Reds vs Rockies	-108
Tigers vs Angels	-104
Nationals vs Athletics	-108
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks	-104
Giants vs Mariners	-150

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of July 17.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 17

Rays vs Red Sox Game 1: Rays (+117)

Rays win probability: 46%

The Boston Red Sox were MLB's hottest team entering the All-Star break, and rookie starter Jake Bennett has emerged as a legit rotation piece. But that 9-1 run to close out the unofficial first half doesn't negate the fact that the Red Sox still boasted the 23rd-ranked wRC+ since June 1.

The Tampa Bay Rays are still the top dog in the AL East for the time being. And with Junior Caminero OK and expected to play after getting plunked during the All-Star Game, I expect him and Yandy Diaz to take advantage of Bennett's pitch-to-contact tendencies. The plus-money odds push this over the top.

Game 2 does not have starters listed, and it's unclear what the lineups will look like. I'd consider my options later in the day once we get a better idea of how that will shake out.

Dodgers vs Yankees: Dodgers (+100)

Dodgers win probability: 50%

Aaron Judge last played on May 31. Since June 1, the New York Yankees are tied with the Red Sox for 23rd in wRC+. They've still won games despite the neutered offense that only underscores Judge's perennial MVP status because the pitching has performed admirably in his absence. But other than home runs and stolen bases, the Yankees have been a Bottom-10 offense by most metrics in that time.

So, getting the Los Angeles Dodgers at even money is a gift, even against Gerrit Cole. Obviously, the wild card is starter Roki Sasaki, who has still been prone to implosions despite some inroads toward tapping into his mega potential. Still, getting the World Series favorites to win straight up at this number in what might be a Fall Classic preview is too good to pass up.

Pirates vs Guardians: Guardians (-117)

Guardians win probability: 54%

Is karma a good reason for making a prediction? No? Obviously, I'm not picking against the Pittsburgh Pirates because Jared Jones, today's starter, was pulled from his last start after throwing six perfect frames, even if I think that should be roundly mocked. No, it's clear that Pittsburgh is treating the right-hander with kid gloves, and the bullpen behind him has the worst walk rate in MLB since June 1, leading to one of the worst ERAs in that span.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians have a Top-10 relief corps backing up ace Gavin Williams. I'll take the home squad up to -130.

Rangers vs Braves: Braves (-194)

Braves win probability: 66%

If Chris Sale over Cal Quantrill isn't enough to take the Atlanta Braves at home here (it probably should be), I simply trust the core more, even without Ronald Acuna Jr. or an effective Austin Riley.

But it is Quantrill who pushes me away from even considering the underdogs (as the Texas Rangers do handle lefties well, though Sale isn't your garden-variety southpaw). His 3.11 ERA in 46 1/3 innings is nice, but not all is well under the hood. He owns a 14.5% strikeout rate, which is only slightly higher than his career low from 2023.

Expect the likes of Matt Olson and Michael Harris II to make life miserable for him early as Sale settles in. The veteran has allowed more than three earned runs only once in 17 starts this season.

White Sox vs Blue Jays: White Sox (+122)

White Sox win probability: 45%

Can the Toronto Blue Jays score any runs? Who's to say? Until this team can figure out what's holding back the offense, I'm going to fade them at lines like this.

Marlins vs Brewers: Brewers (-144)

Brewers win probability: 59%

Only two teams in baseball have a run differential of +100 or better. One is the Dodgers, and the other is the Milwaukee Brewers. Once again, doubt the Brewers at your own peril.

With Sandy Alcantara on the bump for the Miami Marlins, I'd have preferred this number to be closer to -130, but I'm fine with this as he is not missing bats (whiff and strikeout rates in the 24th percentile or worse) and the Brewers are among the hardest teams to punch out. They put bat to ball and make even good pitchers pay.

Twins vs Cubs: Twins (+127)

Twins win probability: 44%

The Chicago Cubs could be a contender if they figure out the rotation. As it stands, trotting Colin Rea out there every fifth day likely isn't helping. Add in the fact that no bullpen has allowed home runs at a greater frequency (1.48 HR/9), and I'm backing the Minnesota Twins even with Byron Buxton sidelined.

Orioles vs Astros: Astros (-104)

Astros win probability: 52%

Baltimore Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer has allowed nine home runs in 22 innings. While that pace is not sustainable, lefties have accounted for seven of them, which plays into Yordan Alvarez's hands. It's a borderline pick'em, and I'll side with the home team.

Padres vs Royals: Padres (-108)

Padres win probability: 52%

The Kansas City Royals have to be the most disappointing team in baseball (if we all pretend the New York Mets don't exist). Obviously, that's not a stretch, as they have the worst overall record (and lost five straight entering the break), but there were expectations that they'd be in the mix for the AL Central crown. Yes, the San Diego Padres have tumbled since a promising start, but this would have to be -150 or shorter before I'd even consider KC in this spot.

Reds vs Rockies: Rockies (-108)

Rockies win probability: 52%

Speaking of disappointing teams, I'm fading the Cincinnati Reds. Everyone knew the Colorado Rockies would be bad in 2026, but they've actually shown some fight of late, which is more than what can be said of the Reds.

In fact, since June 1, the Rockies collectively own a 111 wRC+ (10th in MLB). This suggests that the bats aren't just finding success due to the thin Denver air at Coors Field. Additionally, any time you can pick Mickey Moniak at home against a right-handed pitcher (Brady Singer is tonight's victim), you do it. In that split, he's batting .327 with 10 home runs, eight doubles, two triples, and 18 RBI.

Tigers vs Angels: Tigers (-104)

Tigers win probability: 51%

I wanted to pick the Los Angeles Angels here because I'm a big believer in Reid Detmers, but the Detroit Tigers have hit left-handed pitching relatively well. A 101 wRC+ doesn't seem great, but it is ninth in MLB. 

But the Angels are very bad. I was hoping to get something in the +120 range because of that, and while the Tigers lost two straight before the break, they've actually looked like a competent baseball team over the last month.

Never trust the Angels. They'll only break your heart.

Nationals vs Athletics: Nationals (-108)

Nationals win probability: 52%

Sutter Health Park is a nightmare. The ball flies like crazy, and it's hard to say which pitchers will mitigate risk. A's rookie Gage Jump has not, so far. He owns a 6.20 ERA at home, allowing 34 hits (four of which were home runs) in 24 2/3 innings. Compare that to a 0.75 ERA in 24 road innings, and I think we get the picture.

Add in the fact that the Washington Nationals have the second-highest wRC+ vs. lefties in MLB this season, and this is a great value play. I'd be worried about Cade Cavalli getting similarly lit up, but the A's will be without injured sluggers Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, and Zack Gelof.

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks: Cardinals (-104)

Cardinals win probability: 51%

The St. Louis Cardinals haven't announced a starter, but it looks like it will be Michael McGreevy. His pitch-to-contact tendencies worry me a bit about his blow-up potential, but we can — and should — say the same thing about Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly and his 5.38 ERA. Kelly's expected ERA is even worse at 7.47.

If Jordan Walker can tap into some of that Home Run Derby mojo, we'll be laughing.

Giants vs Mariners: Mariners (-150)

Mariners win probability: 60%

The San Francisco Giants have been among baseball's worst road teams in 2026. The offense has been putrid, and Landen Roupp isn't going to push them over the top opposite Bryce Miller. I'd need a substantially better edge to go with San Francisco here.

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